1263 Ridge Rd Rd W

Lake Tansi, TN 38572

$430,000D-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,760 sqft · Built 2003 · SingleFamily · Active · 125 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,674/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,255
• Tax + insurance: −$282
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$352
• Net cashflow: $-1,214/mo
• Annual: $-14,571/yr
• Cap rate: 2.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.10%
• DSCR: 0.46
• 1% rule: 0.39%
• Cash to close: $120,400

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $430k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-15k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $216k (49.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $167k (61.1% below list).
• It's been on market 125 days — a 12% lower offer ($378k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $167k (61.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $46k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $43k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#245 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Bledsoe County (rural): math 19% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #104 of 139 in TN (top 75%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 452 active listings in the ZIP.
• Bledsoe County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $125k; list at $430k implies a 244% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$74k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 125 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 61% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.