1263 Ridge Rd Rd W · Lake Tansi, TN 38572

$430,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,760 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 125 Days on market

Built 2003 5.30 ac lot $244/sqft · 24% below area Est $566k · 24% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +3.9/30.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Tucked away on 5.3 peaceful acres, this unique multi-dwelling property blends privacy, charm, and functionality. The park-like setting features a mix of wooded and cleared land, a tranquil pond, and open space perfect for animals, gardening, or enjoying the outdoors. The main cabin offers 3 bedrooms, 1 bath, and a newer roof (2–3 years). A separate 1 bed/1 bath guest cabin—ideal for extended family or rental income—has a roof approximately 7–8 years old. The property includes a 6-bay dog kennel, areas for chickens and goats, and an outbuilding with water, electric, and a hot water heater. High-speed internet is available. Both homes use rented propane tanks. Seller is now offering to contribute toward buyer's closing costs.

Key facts

• Open space
• Guest cabin
• Newer roof

Tags

• MULTI-DWELLING PROPERTY
• PARK-LIKE SETTING
• TRANQUIL POND
• OPEN SPACE
• NEWER ROOF
• GUEST CABIN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $430k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-15k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $216k (49.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $167k (61.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $167k (61.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#245 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Bledsoe County (rural): math 19% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #104 of 139 in TN (top 75%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 452 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $46k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $43k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Bledsoe County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$74k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 125 days — a 12% lower offer ($378k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $125k; list at $430k implies a 244% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $167,415 (61.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 125 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 61% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.39% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.10%
• DSCR: 0.46
• GRM: 21.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $565,615
• List price: $430,000
• Delta: -23.98%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.30×
• Total profit: $156,613
• Equity at exit: $387,378

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.33×
• Total profit: $521,534
• Equity at exit: $835,395

Cash invested: $120,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38572

• Home prices YoY: 10.4%
• Active inventory: 452
• Price-to-rent: 21.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,674 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,255
• Tax from tax record: −$103 /mo · $1,232/yr
• Insurance: −$179
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$352
• Net cashflow: $-1,214

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,211

Max offer price $215,503

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-971	-5% $-1,093	+0% $-1,214	+5% $-1,336	+10% $-1,458
Rent	-10% $-1,346	-5% $-1,280	+0% $-1,214	+5% $-1,148	+10% $-1,082
Rate	-1.0pp $-998	-0.5pp $-1,105	base $-1,214	+0.5pp $-1,326	+1.0pp $-1,439

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $107,500
• Closing costs: $12,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $430,000 Active 125 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $430,000 Active 124 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $430,000 Active 123 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $430,000 Active 122 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $430,000 Active 120 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $430,000 Active 117 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $430,000 Active 116 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $430,000 Active 115 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $430,000 Active 114 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $430,000 Active 110 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $430,000 Active 109 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $430,000 Active 108 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $430,000 Active 107 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $430,000 Active 106 DOM
15. 2026-05-13
    price $430,000 757-char remark

    Show marketing remark (757 chars)

    Tucked away on 5.3 peaceful acres, this unique multi-dwelling property blends privacy, charm, and functionality. The park-like setting features a mix of wooded and cleared land, a tranquil pond, and open space perfect for animals, gardening, or enjoying the outdoors. The main cabin offers 3 bedrooms, 1 bath, and a newer roof (2–3 years). A separate 1 bed/1 bath guest cabin—ideal for extended family or rental income—has a roof approximately 7–8 years old. The property includes a 6-bay dog kennel, areas for chickens and goats, and an outbuilding with water, electric, and a hot water heater. High-speed internet is available. Both homes use rented propane tanks. Seller is now offering to contribute toward buyer's closing costs.

16. 2026-04-14
    price $440,000 757-char remark

    Show marketing remark (757 chars)

    Tucked away on 5.3 peaceful acres, this unique multi-dwelling property blends privacy, charm, and functionality. The park-like setting features a mix of wooded and cleared land, a tranquil pond, and open space perfect for animals, gardening, or enjoying the outdoors. The main cabin offers 3 bedrooms, 1 bath, and a newer roof (2–3 years). A separate 1 bed/1 bath guest cabin—ideal for extended family or rental income—has a roof approximately 7–8 years old. The property includes a 6-bay dog kennel, areas for chickens and goats, and an outbuilding with water, electric, and a hot water heater. High-speed internet is available. Both homes use rented propane tanks. Seller is now offering to contribute toward buyer's closing costs.

17. 2026-02-13
    listed $450,000 Active 757-char remark

    Show marketing remark (757 chars)

    Tucked away on 5.3 peaceful acres, this unique multi-dwelling property blends privacy, charm, and functionality. The park-like setting features a mix of wooded and cleared land, a tranquil pond, and open space perfect for animals, gardening, or enjoying the outdoors. The main cabin offers 3 bedrooms, 1 bath, and a newer roof (2–3 years). A separate 1 bed/1 bath guest cabin—ideal for extended family or rental income—has a roof approximately 7–8 years old. The property includes a 6-bay dog kennel, areas for chickens and goats, and an outbuilding with water, electric, and a hot water heater. High-speed internet is available. Both homes use rented propane tanks. Seller is now offering to contribute toward buyer's closing costs.

18. 2026-01-06
    price $450,000
19. 2025-08-11
    historical
20. 2025-08-11
    historical
21. 2025-08-05
    listed $585,000 Active
22. 2025-07-25
    price $549,900
23. 2025-06-02
    listed $585,000 Active
24. 2003-12-16
    soldstatus $125,000
25. 2003-07-18
    soldstatus $80,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,232 · $103/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,053 · $254/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,821/yr (+$152/mo · 147.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 6 d/yr ≥101°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,090
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,087
• − Property taxes: −$1,232
• − Insurance: −$2,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,607
• − Management: −$1,607
• − Depreciation: −$12,509
• Taxable loss: −$23,102
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,545
• After-tax cash flow: $-9,026/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bledsoe County
• NCES district ID: 4700270
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $35,901
• Composite: 19.02/100
• National rank: #8845
• State rank: #104 of 139 in TN

Livability — Lake Tansi

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #245
• US rank: #17630

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 12,030

Population outlook (Bledsoe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 18,085 people
• By 2030: 19,649 · +8.6%
• By 2040: 22,438 · +24.1%
• By 2050: 24,582 · +35.9%
• By 2075: 26,769 · +48.0%
• By 2100: 25,033 · +38.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Iranian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Bledsoe

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+70.5) · D 14.4% · R 84.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.0pp toward R · 2008: -34.5pp · 2024: -70.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+70.5 2020: R+65.2 2016: R+58.6 2012: R+40.3 2008: R+34.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 34.68%
• Current HPI: 367.3069
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+437.5% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $430,000 UCMLS
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $440,000 UCMLS
• 2026-02-13 Listed $450,000 UCMLS
• 2026-01-06 Price Changed $450,000 UCMLS
• 2025-08-11 Listing Removed — Knoxville MLS
• 2025-08-11 Listing Removed — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-05 Listed $585,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-25 Price Changed $549,900 UCMLS
• 2025-06-02 Listed $585,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2003-12-16 Sold (Public Records) $125,000 Public Records
• 2003-07-18 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,232 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.