16121 Three Oaks Rd

Three Oaks, MI 49128

$170,000C

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,170 sqft · Built 1950 · SingleFamily · Active · 15 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,192/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax + insurance: −$505
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$460
• Net cashflow: $335/mo
• Annual: $4,021/yr
• Cap rate: 8.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.45%
• DSCR: 1.38
• 1% rule: 1.29%
• Cash to close: $47,600

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $170k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $335 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $167k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#109 in MI, #2,625 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• River Valley School District (rural): math 30% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #171 of 540 in MI (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price; built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 51 active listings in the ZIP; 397 units permitted in Berrien County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Berrien County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 5 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask is 143% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.