16121 Three Oaks Rd · Three Oaks, MI 49128

$170,000

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,170 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1950 2.16 ac lot ↓ 55% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.1/30.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

A unique rehab property that is being split off a larger farm parcel. All tax info are best guesses based on new parcel. There was a water incident so the owners stripped all the walls down to the studs. You can create a ''NEW'' three bedroom 2 bath house with just a few changes in the walls and rooms because you are starting with just the frame of a house. Needs all new mechanicals. Seller will install new well that will produce at least 5 gallons per minute of potable water after he has an offer, but before closing. Buyer has to create new septic for which Seller will provided permit and proposal to do the work. Mature trees all around the house. Just a mile north of downtown Three Oaks. Lots of permitted options for the 2.6 acres . Seller will complete land division prior to closing. You can enter from Three Oaks Rd or Elm Valley Rd. on existing driveways that cross drainage ditches.

Key facts

• New well
• Permitted options
• Existing driveways

Tags

• REHAB PROPERTY
• NEW WELL
• MATURE TREES
• LAND DIVISION
• PERMITTED OPTIONS
• EXISTING DRIVEWAYS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Well water; No public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Traditional architectural style; Built in 1950
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Wood siding; Asphalt shingle roof; Built in 1950
• Exterior features: Corner lot; Wooded lot; Paved road access; Well water

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen (10 x 11)
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (12 x 12) — no primary bath; Bedroom 2 (10 x 12); Bedroom 3 (12 x 12); Bedroom 4 (9 x 12)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Full basement; 7 total rooms; Traditional-style layout

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $335 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• Recommended offer: $167k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#109 in MI, #2,625 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• River Valley School District (rural): math 30% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #171 of 540 in MI (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 51 active listings in the ZIP; 397 units permitted in Berrien County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Berrien County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask is 143% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price; built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $167,450 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.45%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $390,780
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16576 Three Oaks Rd	0.57mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,272 (+9%)	9mo	$425,000	$334	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-6,035
• Equity at exit: $25,348

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.48×
• Total profit: $22,916
• Equity at exit: $14,698

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49128

• Home prices YoY: -23.9%
• Active inventory: 51
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,192 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$435 /mo · $5,215/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$460
• Net cashflow: $335

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,768

Max offer price $170,000

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,500
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $170,000 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $170,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $170,000 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $170,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $170,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $170,000 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $170,000 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $170,000 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $170,000 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $170,000 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $170,000 Active 3 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    remarks 699-char remark
13. 2026-06-05
    listed $170,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,215 · $435/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,215 · $435/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,309
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,523
• − Property taxes: −$5,215
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,105
• − Management: −$2,105
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable income: $1,567
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$376
• After-tax cash flow: $3,645/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: River Valley School District
• NCES district ID: 2629790
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $47,899
• Composite: 36.67/100
• National rank: #4609
• State rank: #171 of 540 in MI

Livability — Three Oaks

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #109
• US rank: #2625

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,461

Population outlook (Berrien County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 149,273 people
• By 2030: 145,211 · -2.7%
• By 2040: 135,435 · -9.3%
• By 2050: 125,543 · -15.9%
• By 2075: 103,986 · -30.3%
• By 2100: 82,256 · -44.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Two or more races 12% Hispanic / Latino 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Iranian 6% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Berrien

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+7.9) · D 45.4% · R 53.2% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.3pp toward R · 2008: 5.5pp · 2024: -7.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+7.9 2020: R+7.4 2016: R+12.7 2012: R+6.6 2008: D+5.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -85.74%
• Current HPI: 273.5945
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

-55.5% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Price Changed $170,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-06-04 Price Changed $170,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-06-04 Price Changed $170,000 SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-06-02 Listed $70,000 SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-06-02 Listed $70,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-06-02 Listed $70,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2005-08-17 Sold (MLS) $388,000 REALCOMP
• 2005-08-17 Sold (MLS) $388,000 SW Michigan MLS
• 2005-06-03 Listed $382,000 REALCOMP
• 2005-06-03 Listed $382,000 SW Michigan MLS