319 E Hubbard St

Lindale, TX 75771

$230,000D

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,800 sqft · Built 1955 · SingleFamily · Pending · 82 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,760/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax + insurance: −$414
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$370
• Net cashflow: $-229/mo
• Annual: $-2,749/yr
• Cap rate: 5.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.27%
• DSCR: 0.81
• 1% rule: 0.77%
• Cash to close: $64,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $230k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-229 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $190k (17.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $176k (23.5% below list).
• It's been on market 82 days — a 6% lower offer ($216k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $176k (23.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#52 in TX, #2,100 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Lindale ISD (town): math 71% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #20 of 826 in TX (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Velma Penny El (math 67% / reading 67%, grade B+, #199 of 4,322 statewide, top 5%, 541 students, 48% FRL); E J Moss Int (math 66% / reading 59%, grade B+, #128 of 1,662 statewide, top 8%, 981 students, 45% FRL); Lindale H S (math 79% / reading 75%, grade A-, #60 of 1,632 statewide, top 4%, 1,265 students, 38% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 644 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 595 units permitted in Smith County in 2024 (45 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Smith County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 8 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $29k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 58% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.3% in Lindale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 82 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.