161 Carriage Hill Rd

Farmville, VA 23901

$172,500D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,404 sqft · Built 2006 · Manufactured · Pending · 12 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,524/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$905
• Tax + insurance: −$145
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$320
• Net cashflow: $154/mo
• Annual: $1,852/yr
• Cap rate: 7.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.83%
• DSCR: 1.17
• 1% rule: 0.88%
• Cash to close: $48,300

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $172k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $154 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $152k (11.7% below list).
• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $152k (11.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#79 in VA, #2,622 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools C-, crime F, employment F.
• Cumberland County Public School District (rural): math 33% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #113 of 131 in VA (top 86%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 151 active listings in the ZIP; 80 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cumberland County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 9 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $149k; 16% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 2.8% in Farmville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.