161 Carriage Hill Rd · Farmville, VA 23901

$172,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,404 sqft · Manufactured public records · 12 Days on market

Built 2006 2.98 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Location! Location! Located a short distance to Farmville and Cumberland is this doublewide home. Come take a look and see how to make this your home.

Key facts

• 2.98 acre lot
• Built 2006
• Listed 12 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $172k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $154 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $152k (11.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $152k (11.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 2.8% in Farmville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#79 in VA, #2,622 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools C-, crime F, employment F.
• Cumberland County Public School District (rural): math 33% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #113 of 131 in VA (top 86%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 151 active listings in the ZIP; 80 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cumberland County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 9 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $149k; 16% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $152,361 (11.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.83%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-18,189
• Equity at exit: $25,720

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-3,447
• Equity at exit: $14,915

Cash invested: $48,300 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23901

• Home prices YoY: -21.9%
• Active inventory: 151
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,524 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$905
• Tax from tax record: −$73 /mo · $874/yr
• Insurance: −$72
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$320
• Net cashflow: $154

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,328

Max offer price $172,500

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,125
• Closing costs: $5,175
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-05-02
   status Pending 150-char remark

   Show marketing remark (150 chars)

   Location! Location! Located a short distance to Farmville and Cumberland is this doublewide home. Come take a look and see how to make this your home.

2. 2026-04-20
   listed $172,500 Active 150-char remark

   Show marketing remark (150 chars)

   Location! Location! Located a short distance to Farmville and Cumberland is this doublewide home. Come take a look and see how to make this your home.

3. 2024-05-08
   soldstatus $149,000
4. 2024-05-07
   soldstatus $149,000 Closed 596-char remark

   Show marketing remark (596 chars)

   Tucked on a hillside in the countryside is this doublewide ready for you! 1400 sq. ft home with 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, a shed, open living space and dining room attached to the kitchen. Exit from the laundry room to the rear deck. Home is great space with large closets and room to spread out. The house offers privacy and nature. There is a creek that runs along the front--imagine sending the kiddos to catch frogs and jump in puddles. Bring some paint and some new flooring and this house will feel brand new. Enjoy the rewards of a gentle remodel. Run, don't walk to this amazing deal.

5. 2024-05-07
   soldstatus $149,000 Closed

   Show marketing remark (596 chars)

   Tucked on a hillside in the countryside is this doublewide ready for you! 1400 sq. ft home with 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, a shed, open living space and dining room attached to the kitchen. Exit from the laundry room to the rear deck. Home is great space with large closets and room to spread out. The house offers privacy and nature. There is a creek that runs along the front--imagine sending the kiddos to catch frogs and jump in puddles. Bring some paint and some new flooring and this house will feel brand new. Enjoy the rewards of a gentle remodel. Run, don't walk to this amazing deal.

6. 2024-03-15
   status Pending 596-char remark

   Show marketing remark (596 chars)

   Tucked on a hillside in the countryside is this doublewide ready for you! 1400 sq. ft home with 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, a shed, open living space and dining room attached to the kitchen. Exit from the laundry room to the rear deck. Home is great space with large closets and room to spread out. The house offers privacy and nature. There is a creek that runs along the front--imagine sending the kiddos to catch frogs and jump in puddles. Bring some paint and some new flooring and this house will feel brand new. Enjoy the rewards of a gentle remodel. Run, don't walk to this amazing deal.

7. 2024-03-15
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (596 chars)

   Tucked on a hillside in the countryside is this doublewide ready for you! 1400 sq. ft home with 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, a shed, open living space and dining room attached to the kitchen. Exit from the laundry room to the rear deck. Home is great space with large closets and room to spread out. The house offers privacy and nature. There is a creek that runs along the front--imagine sending the kiddos to catch frogs and jump in puddles. Bring some paint and some new flooring and this house will feel brand new. Enjoy the rewards of a gentle remodel. Run, don't walk to this amazing deal.

8. 2024-03-12
   listed $139,900 Active 596-char remark

   Show marketing remark (596 chars)

   Tucked on a hillside in the countryside is this doublewide ready for you! 1400 sq. ft home with 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, a shed, open living space and dining room attached to the kitchen. Exit from the laundry room to the rear deck. Home is great space with large closets and room to spread out. The house offers privacy and nature. There is a creek that runs along the front--imagine sending the kiddos to catch frogs and jump in puddles. Bring some paint and some new flooring and this house will feel brand new. Enjoy the rewards of a gentle remodel. Run, don't walk to this amazing deal.

9. 2024-03-09
   listed $139,900 Active
10. 2019-05-06
    soldstatus $106,000
11. 2019-05-03
    soldstatus $106,000
12. 2019-02-01
    listed $100,000
13. 2016-10-31
    soldstatus $105,100
14. 2016-10-28
    soldstatus $105,000
15. 2016-09-09
    listed $106,950
16. 2014-03-17
    soldstatus $118,000
17. 2012-03-10
    listed $114,950
18. 2011-06-30
    historical
19. 2011-03-16
    listed $132,900
20. 2011-02-28
    historical
21. 2010-08-24
    listed $134,900
22. 2010-05-27
    historical
23. 2010-03-27
    listed $134,950

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $874 · $73/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,415 · $118/mo
• Expected delta: +$540/yr (+$45/mo · 61.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,283
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,663
• − Property taxes: −$874
• − Insurance: −$862
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,463
• − Management: −$1,463
• − Depreciation: −$5,018
• Taxable loss: −$1,060
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$254
• After-tax cash flow: $2,106/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cumberland County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101080
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -43.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $41,600
• Composite: 37.33/100
• National rank: #4443
• State rank: #113 of 131 in VA

Livability — Farmville

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #79
• US rank: #2622

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing C+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 1,176
• Population (ZIP): 15,016

Population outlook (Cumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 9,012 people
• By 2030: 8,578 · -4.8%
• By 2040: 7,622 · -15.4%
• By 2050: 6,640 · -26.3%
• By 2075: 4,936 · -45.2%
• By 2100: 3,994 · -55.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Black 27% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3% Pacific Islander 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Serbian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Cumberland

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.2) · D 38.6% · R 60.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.7pp toward R · 2008: -3.5pp · 2024: -22.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.2 2020: R+14.9 2016: R+13.6 2012: R+2.3 2008: R+3.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -51.68%
• Current HPI: 183.9782
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+27.8% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Pending — SCAR
• 2026-04-20 Listed $172,500 SCAR
• 2024-05-08 Sold (Public Records) $149,000 Public Records
• 2024-05-07 Sold (MLS) $149,000 CVRMLS
• 2024-05-07 Sold (MLS) $149,000 SCAR
• 2024-03-15 Pending — SCAR
• 2024-03-15 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2024-03-12 Listed $139,900 SCAR
• 2024-03-09 Listed $139,900 CVRMLS
• 2019-05-06 Sold (MLS) $106,000 CVRMLS
• 2019-05-03 Sold (Public Records) $106,000 Public Records
• 2019-02-01 Listed $100,000 CVRMLS
• 2016-10-31 Sold (Public Records) $105,100 Public Records
• 2016-10-28 Sold (MLS) $105,000 CVRMLS
• 2016-09-09 Listed $106,950 CVRMLS
• 2014-03-17 Sold (MLS) $118,000 CVRMLS
• 2012-03-10 Listed $114,950 CVRMLS
• 2011-06-30 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2011-03-16 Listed $132,900 CVRMLS
• 2011-02-28 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2010-08-24 Listed $134,900 CVRMLS
• 2010-05-27 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2010-03-27 Listed $134,950 CVRMLS

Property tax history

-0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $874 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.