3373 Tulip Tree Dr

Erlanger, KY 41018

$195,000D+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 912 sqft · Built 1972 · SingleFamily · Active · 24 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,519/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax + insurance: −$192
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$319
• Net cashflow: $-15/mo
• Annual: $-179/yr
• Cap rate: 6.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.33%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $54,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $195k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-15 ($-179/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $192k (1.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $152k (22.1% below list).
• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($192k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $152k (22.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#126 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Boone County (suburban): math 43% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #12 of 165 in KY (top 7%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 122 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,430 units permitted in Boone County in 2024 (928 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Boone County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $112k; list at $195k implies a 74% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.8% in Erlanger — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.