12430 N South Shore Ave

Portland, OR 97217

$59,985D+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Built 1973 · Manufactured · Pending · 69 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,751/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$315
• Tax + insurance: −$166
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$578
• Net cashflow: $1,692/mo
• Annual: $20,308/yr
• Cap rate: 41.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 125.66%
• DSCR: 6.59
• 1% rule: 4.59%
• Cash to close: $16,796

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $60k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($20k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $60k).
• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($56k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $56k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $415 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#72 in OR, #3,256 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Portland SD 1J (urban): math 46% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #23 of 183 in OR (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 305 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,041 units permitted in Multnomah County in 2024 (905 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Multnomah County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.9% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 41.5% vs local median 2.2% in Portland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($100k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.