12430 N South Shore Ave · Portland, OR 97217

$59,985

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Manufactured public records · 69 Days on market

Built 1973 $62/sqft · 53% below area ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful, updated move in ready home with 2 large bedrooms and remodeled bathroom. Recently sealed roof. Updated double-paned windows. Central air conditioning. Fresh concrete walkway installed last year. Relaxing covered deck. Huge front and back yard. Lots of space between homes means more privacy. Mowing of the lawn is included in the space rent. Spacious living room with luxury vinyl plank flooring, painted walls and vinyl windows. Dining room has vinyl flooring and built-in hutch. Large kitchen with attached utility room. Washer, dryer, refrigerator and range all stay. Large primary bedroom with huge walk-in closet. Good sized 2nd bedroom. This park is very different than most parks. Approx 7,000 sq ft yard, river front walking paths, gym, swimming pools, recreation facilities, security and more! Enjoy the Columbia River lifestyle.

Key facts

• Concrete walkway
• Covered deck
• Remodeled bathroom

Tags

• REMODELED BATHROOM
• SEALED ROOF
• DOUBLE-PANED WINDOWS
• CENTRAL AIR CONDITIONING
• CONCRETE WALKWAY
• COVERED DECK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $60k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($20k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $60k).
• Recommended offer: $56k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 41.5% vs local median 2.2% in Portland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#72 in OR, #3,256 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Portland SD 1J (urban): math 46% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #23 of 183 in OR (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 298 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,041 units permitted in Multnomah County in 2024 (905 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($100k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $415 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Multnomah County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.9% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($56k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $56,385 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.59% ✓
• Cap rate: 41.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 125.66%
• DSCR: 6.59
• GRM: 1.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $128,825
• List price: $59,985
• Delta: -53.44%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12261 N Westshore Dr	0.13mi	2/1.0	924 (-4%)	0mo	$33,000	$36	84
12405 N South Shore Ave	0.05mi	2/2.0	924 (-4%)	15mo	$46,999	$51	79
1501 N Hayden Island Dr Unit 42B	0.43mi	2/2.0	1,080 (+12%)	18mo	$138,500	$128	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.89% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 6.50×
• Total profit: $92,426
• Equity at exit: $8,944

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 12.74×
• Total profit: $197,107
• Equity at exit: $5,186

Cash invested: $16,796 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Portland: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+39

Mandatory relocation for no-cause evictions; rent increase notice 90 days.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97217

• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 298
• Price-to-rent: 1.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,751 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$315
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$75 /mo · $900/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$578
• Net cashflow: $1,692

Break-even live

Break-even rent $609

Max offer price $59,985

Occupancy floor 33%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,996
• Closing costs: $1,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1245 N Anchor Way Portland, OR	2.0	1.0–2.0	856	$2,250	$2.63	2d	16	0.80mi
1111 W Columbia Way Vancouver, WA	2.0	1.0–2.5	857	$4,800	$5.60	2d	28	0.84mi
111 Parkway Pl Vancouver, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	983	$4,995	$5.08	2d	3	0.86mi
1110 W Columbia Way Vancouver, WA	2.0	1.0–2.0	783	$3,849	$4.91	2d	13	0.88mi
1055 N Anchor Way Portland, OR	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1056	$3,150	$2.98	2d	34	0.90mi
1000 W Columbia Way Vancouver, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	767	$3,282	$4.28	2d	11	0.91mi
440 W Columbia Way Vancouver, WA	2.0	1.0–2.0	863	$4,400	$5.10	2d	150	0.92mi
500 W Columbia Way Vancouver, WA	2.0	1.0–2.0	849	$3,995	$4.71	2d	6	0.92mi
183 N Hayden Bay Dr Portland, OR	1.0	1.0	858	$1,800	$2.10	44d	1	0.99mi
636 W 6th St Vancouver, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0	723	$2,349	$3.25	2d	8	1.02mi
995 N Marine Dr Portland, OR	2.0	1.0–2.0	924	$2,036	$2.20	3d	11	1.02mi
123 N Hayden Bay Dr Portland, OR	2.0	1.0	889	$2,249	$2.53	44d	1	1.03mi
411 Columbia St Vancouver, WA	2.0	1.0–2.0	818	$3,377	$4.13	2d	14	1.07mi
555 W 8th St Vancouver, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0	695	$1,630	$2.35	2d	11	1.09mi
608 Washington St Vancouver, WA	2.0	1.0–2.0	903	$3,236	$3.58	2d	11	1.17mi
300 W 8th St Vancouver, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	915	$2,932	$3.20	2d	1	1.20mi
701 Columbia St #107 Vancouver, WA	2.0	2.0	871	$1,995	$2.29	24d	1	1.20mi
110 N Tomahawk Island Dr Portland, OR	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	994	$2,674	$2.69	2d	27	1.26mi
209 W Evergreen Blvd Vancouver, WA	2.0	1.0	1048	$2,765	$2.64	4d	1	1.28mi
1414 Markle Ave Unit 101 Vancouver, WA	1.0	1.0	588	$1,369	$2.33	24d	1	1.33mi
410 W Mill Plain Blvd Vancouver, WA	2.0	1.0–2.0	713	$1,646	$2.31	2d	5	1.47mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-17
   price $59,985 849-char remark

   Show marketing remark (849 chars)

   Beautiful, updated move in ready home with 2 large bedrooms and remodeled bathroom. Recently sealed roof. Updated double-paned windows. Central air conditioning. Fresh concrete walkway installed last year. Relaxing covered deck. Huge front and back yard. Lots of space between homes means more privacy. Mowing of the lawn is included in the space rent. Spacious living room with luxury vinyl plank flooring, painted walls and vinyl windows. Dining room has vinyl flooring and built-in hutch. Large kitchen with attached utility room. Washer, dryer, refrigerator and range all stay. Large primary bedroom with huge walk-in closet. Good sized 2nd bedroom. This park is very different than most parks. Approx 7,000 sq ft yard, river front walking paths, gym, swimming pools, recreation facilities, security and more! Enjoy the Columbia River lifestyle.

2. 2026-03-17
   listed $64,985 Active 849-char remark

   Show marketing remark (849 chars)

   Beautiful, updated move in ready home with 2 large bedrooms and remodeled bathroom. Recently sealed roof. Updated double-paned windows. Central air conditioning. Fresh concrete walkway installed last year. Relaxing covered deck. Huge front and back yard. Lots of space between homes means more privacy. Mowing of the lawn is included in the space rent. Spacious living room with luxury vinyl plank flooring, painted walls and vinyl windows. Dining room has vinyl flooring and built-in hutch. Large kitchen with attached utility room. Washer, dryer, refrigerator and range all stay. Large primary bedroom with huge walk-in closet. Good sized 2nd bedroom. This park is very different than most parks. Approx 7,000 sq ft yard, river front walking paths, gym, swimming pools, recreation facilities, security and more! Enjoy the Columbia River lifestyle.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 77% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 19 unhealthy d/yr today · 20 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,012
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,360
• − Property taxes: −$900
• − Insurance: −$1,097
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,641
• − Management: −$2,641
• − Depreciation: −$1,745
• Taxable income: $20,628
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,951
• After-tax cash flow: $15,357/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Portland SD 1J
• NCES district ID: 4110040
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $57,851
• Composite: 47.1/100
• National rank: #5112
• State rank: #23 of 183 in OR

Livability — Portland

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #72
• US rank: #3256

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Portland, OR
• County: Multnomah County · 786,692 people
• City population: 774,334
• Metro: Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA
• Population (ZIP): 35,169
• Household income: $100,361
• Rent vs Own: 43.5% rent · 56.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1532.0

Population outlook (Multnomah County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 930,825 people
• By 2030: 996,904 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 1,121,379 · +20.5%
• By 2050: 1,242,124 · +33.4%
• By 2075: 1,464,431 · +57.3%
• By 2100: 1,576,181 · +69.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Two or more races 12% Hispanic / Latino 9% Black 7% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Slovak 4% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Multnomah

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+62.1) · D 79.3% · R 17.2% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.0pp toward D · 2008: 56.1pp · 2024: 62.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+62.1 2020: D+61.3 2016: D+58.3 2012: D+54.9 2008: D+56.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -747.13%
• Current HPI: 370.7526
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.89%
• Metro: Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

-7.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Price Changed $59,985 RMLS
• 2026-03-17 Listed $64,985 RMLS

Property tax history

-43.9%/yr

Latest (2015): $6 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.