8631 Pinon St

Starkville, CO 81082

$114,900C

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,028 sqft · Built 1889 · SingleFamily · Active · 157 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,300/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax + insurance: −$99
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$273
• Net cashflow: $326/mo
• Annual: $3,914/yr
• Cap rate: 9.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.17%
• DSCR: 1.54
• 1% rule: 1.13%
• Cash to close: $32,172

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $115k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $326 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $115k).
• It's been on market 157 days — a 12% lower offer ($101k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $101k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $794 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#289 in CO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, crime F.
• Trinidad School District 1 In The County Of Las Animas And (town): math 6% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #82 of 86 in CO (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Fisher'S Peak Elementary School (math 5% / reading 22%, grade F, #824 of 966 statewide, top 88%, 403 students, 76% FRL); Trinidad Middle School (math 2% / reading 15%, grade F, #251 of 270 statewide, top 94%, 180 students, 74% FRL); Trinidad High School (math 15% / reading 44%, grade F, #233 of 381 statewide, top 64%, 213 students, 62% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1889 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 263 active listings in the ZIP; 43 units permitted in Las Animas County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Las Animas County population projected at -40% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (21%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 157 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1889 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.