461 Twin Lakes Blvd W

West Columbia, TX 77486

$328,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,858 sqft · Built 2018 · SingleFamily · Active · 82 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,700/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,720
• Tax + insurance: −$568
• HOA: −$50
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$567
• Net cashflow: $-205/mo
• Annual: $-2,465/yr
• Cap rate: 5.54%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.68%
• DSCR: 0.88
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $91,840

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $328k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-205 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $292k (11.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $270k (17.7% below list).
• It's been on market 82 days — a 6% lower offer ($308k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $270k (17.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (7.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#375 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Columbia-Brazoria ISD (town): math 35% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #513 of 826 in TX (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 145 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$44k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 4.4% in West Columbia — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 82 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?