461 Twin Lakes Blvd W · West Columbia, TX 77486

$328,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,858 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 82 Days on market

Built 2018 0.30 ac lot $177/sqft · 12% above area Est $292k · 12% over $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.9/30.0
• Appreciation +8.8/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +2.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

CUSTOM BUILT HOME BY CORNERSTONE BUILDERS, THIS 2018 BUILT HOME HAS BEEN VERY WELL MAINTAINED AND IS IN ALMOST NEW CONDITION. DRIVING UP TO THE HOME THE CURB APPEAL HAS A "WOW" REACTION. BUT WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE SURROUNDINGS, YOU WILL NOTE THAT YOUR NEW HOME IS ON A CORNER LOT WITH NO ONE TO EVER BUILD IN FRONT OF YOU, TO THE BACK OF YOU, OR TO ONE SIDE OF YOU! PERFECT SPOT!!! THE 2 CAR GARAGE IS ROOMY. MOVING IN TO THE HOME, YOU IMMEDIATELY FEEL THE COZY ATMOSPHERE THAT THIS OPEN FLOOR PLAN HAS TO OFFER. THE KITCHEN IS SPACIOUS AND MODERN. THE FAMILY ROOM HAS A GAS FIREPLACE AND FLOWS INTO THE DINING ROOM. THE PRIMARY BEDROOM IS ALSO SPACIOUS AND THE PRIMARY BATHROOM, WITH SEPARATE SHOWER, HAS OVERSIZED DOORS FOR EASY WHEELCHAIR ACCESS. THE BEDROOMS ARE SPLIT BUT ARE ROOMY AND WELL KEPT. MOVING INTO THE BACKYARD, THE SMALL PATIO LEADS TO A NICE SIZED PERGOLA. THE BREEZE THERE IS ALWAYS SO REFRESHING. THE BACKYARD IS FENCED WITH A GATE LEADING TO THE LAKE. CALL NOW FOR MORE INFO.

Key facts

• Gate leading to lake
• Gas fireplace
• Oversized doors

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• GAS FIREPLACE
• OVERSIZED DOORS
• FENCED BACKYARD
• GATE LEADING TO LAKE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $328k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-205 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $292k (11.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $270k (17.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $270k (17.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 4.4% in West Columbia — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#375 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Columbia-Brazoria ISD (town): math 35% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #513 of 826 in TX (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 145 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (7.6% local appreciation)).
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$44k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 82 days — a 6% lower offer ($308k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $270,000 (17.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 82 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
9. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
10. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
11. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
12. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
13. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.54%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.68%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $292,249
• List price: $328,000
• Delta: 12.23%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
418 Twin Lakes Blvd W	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,863 (+0%)	4mo	$289,000	$155	89
331 Woodhaven Dr	0.38mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,878 (+1%)	5mo	$329,990	$176	71
2337 Shalmar Dr	0.46mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,801 (-3%)	3mo	$335,000	$186	66
230 Edgewater Dr	0.46mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,902 (+2%)	4mo	$309,999	$163	66
212 Forest Park Dr	0.54mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,878 (+1%)	3mo	$299,990	$160	66
241 Woodhaven Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,735 (-7%)	2mo	$292,900	$169	64
2280 Riveroaks Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,885 (+2%)	2mo	$399,999	$212	63
214 Montclaire Dr	0.55mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,968 (+6%)	1mo	$365,990	$186	58
429 N Amherst Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,778 (-4%)	1mo	$276,500	$156	57
229 N Amherst Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	2,007 (+8%)	3mo	$354,000	$176	54
231 Wentworth Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,713 (-8%)	5mo	$359,900	$210	49
2250 Lake Forrest Dr	0.71mi	3/3.0	1,684 (-9%)	2mo	$268,500	$159	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.63% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.25×
• Total profit: $114,382
• Equity at exit: $240,957

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.72×
• Total profit: $341,657
• Equity at exit: $470,652

Cash invested: $91,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77486

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 145
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,700 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,720
• Tax from tax record: −$432 /mo · $5,180/yr
• Insurance: −$137
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$567
• Net cashflow: $-205

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,960

Max offer price $291,718

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,000
• Closing costs: $9,840
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2363 Ridgewood Dr West Columbia, TX	4.0	2.5	2555	$2,700	$1.06	24d	1	0.60mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $328,000 Active 82 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $328,000 Active 81 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $328,000 Active 80 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $328,000 Active 79 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $328,000 Active 77 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $328,000 Active 76 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $328,000 Active 73 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $328,000 Active 72 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $328,000 Active 71 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $328,000 Active 68 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $328,000 Active 67 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $328,000 Active 66 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $328,000 Active 65 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $328,000 Active 64 DOM
15. 2026-05-18
    price $328,000 1007-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1007 chars)

    CUSTOM BUILT HOME BY CORNERSTONE BUILDERS, THIS 2018 BUILT HOME HAS BEEN VERY WELL MAINTAINED AND IS IN ALMOST NEW CONDITION. DRIVING UP TO THE HOME THE CURB APPEAL HAS A "WOW" REACTION. BUT WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE SURROUNDINGS, YOU WILL NOTE THAT YOUR NEW HOME IS ON A CORNER LOT WITH NO ONE TO EVER BUILD IN FRONT OF YOU, TO THE BACK OF YOU, OR TO ONE SIDE OF YOU! PERFECT SPOT!!! THE 2 CAR GARAGE IS ROOMY. MOVING IN TO THE HOME, YOU IMMEDIATELY FEEL THE COZY ATMOSPHERE THAT THIS OPEN FLOOR PLAN HAS TO OFFER. THE KITCHEN IS SPACIOUS AND MODERN. THE FAMILY ROOM HAS A GAS FIREPLACE AND FLOWS INTO THE DINING ROOM. THE PRIMARY BEDROOM IS ALSO SPACIOUS AND THE PRIMARY BATHROOM, WITH SEPARATE SHOWER, HAS OVERSIZED DOORS FOR EASY WHEELCHAIR ACCESS. THE BEDROOMS ARE SPLIT BUT ARE ROOMY AND WELL KEPT. MOVING INTO THE BACKYARD, THE SMALL PATIO LEADS TO A NICE SIZED PERGOLA. THE BREEZE THERE IS ALWAYS SO REFRESHING. THE BACKYARD IS FENCED WITH A GATE LEADING TO THE LAKE. CALL NOW FOR MORE INFO.

16. 2026-04-18
    price $348,900 1007-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1007 chars)

    CUSTOM BUILT HOME BY CORNERSTONE BUILDERS, THIS 2018 BUILT HOME HAS BEEN VERY WELL MAINTAINED AND IS IN ALMOST NEW CONDITION. DRIVING UP TO THE HOME THE CURB APPEAL HAS A "WOW" REACTION. BUT WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE SURROUNDINGS, YOU WILL NOTE THAT YOUR NEW HOME IS ON A CORNER LOT WITH NO ONE TO EVER BUILD IN FRONT OF YOU, TO THE BACK OF YOU, OR TO ONE SIDE OF YOU! PERFECT SPOT!!! THE 2 CAR GARAGE IS ROOMY. MOVING IN TO THE HOME, YOU IMMEDIATELY FEEL THE COZY ATMOSPHERE THAT THIS OPEN FLOOR PLAN HAS TO OFFER. THE KITCHEN IS SPACIOUS AND MODERN. THE FAMILY ROOM HAS A GAS FIREPLACE AND FLOWS INTO THE DINING ROOM. THE PRIMARY BEDROOM IS ALSO SPACIOUS AND THE PRIMARY BATHROOM, WITH SEPARATE SHOWER, HAS OVERSIZED DOORS FOR EASY WHEELCHAIR ACCESS. THE BEDROOMS ARE SPLIT BUT ARE ROOMY AND WELL KEPT. MOVING INTO THE BACKYARD, THE SMALL PATIO LEADS TO A NICE SIZED PERGOLA. THE BREEZE THERE IS ALWAYS SO REFRESHING. THE BACKYARD IS FENCED WITH A GATE LEADING TO THE LAKE. CALL NOW FOR MORE INFO.

17. 2026-03-28
    listed $360,000 Active 1007-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1007 chars)

    CUSTOM BUILT HOME BY CORNERSTONE BUILDERS, THIS 2018 BUILT HOME HAS BEEN VERY WELL MAINTAINED AND IS IN ALMOST NEW CONDITION. DRIVING UP TO THE HOME THE CURB APPEAL HAS A "WOW" REACTION. BUT WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE SURROUNDINGS, YOU WILL NOTE THAT YOUR NEW HOME IS ON A CORNER LOT WITH NO ONE TO EVER BUILD IN FRONT OF YOU, TO THE BACK OF YOU, OR TO ONE SIDE OF YOU! PERFECT SPOT!!! THE 2 CAR GARAGE IS ROOMY. MOVING IN TO THE HOME, YOU IMMEDIATELY FEEL THE COZY ATMOSPHERE THAT THIS OPEN FLOOR PLAN HAS TO OFFER. THE KITCHEN IS SPACIOUS AND MODERN. THE FAMILY ROOM HAS A GAS FIREPLACE AND FLOWS INTO THE DINING ROOM. THE PRIMARY BEDROOM IS ALSO SPACIOUS AND THE PRIMARY BATHROOM, WITH SEPARATE SHOWER, HAS OVERSIZED DOORS FOR EASY WHEELCHAIR ACCESS. THE BEDROOMS ARE SPLIT BUT ARE ROOMY AND WELL KEPT. MOVING INTO THE BACKYARD, THE SMALL PATIO LEADS TO A NICE SIZED PERGOLA. THE BREEZE THERE IS ALWAYS SO REFRESHING. THE BACKYARD IS FENCED WITH A GATE LEADING TO THE LAKE. CALL NOW FOR MORE INFO.

18. 2018-12-17
    soldstatus
19. 2007-01-08
    soldstatus
20. 2006-11-16
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,180 · $432/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,002 · $500/mo
• Expected delta: +$823/yr (+$69/mo · 15.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X · 69% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,373
• − Property taxes: −$5,180
• − Insurance: −$1,640
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,592
• − Management: −$2,592
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$9,542
• Taxable loss: −$8,119
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,948
• After-tax cash flow: $-516/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Columbia-Brazoria ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814670
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $57,256
• Composite: 30.23/100
• National rank: #6297
• State rank: #513 of 826 in TX

Livability — West Columbia

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #375
• US rank: #7954

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,330

Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,414 people
• By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
• By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 13% Black 10% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 12% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.63%
• Current HPI: 320.7967
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-8.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $328,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-18 Price Changed $348,900 HARMLS
• 2026-03-28 Listed $360,000 HARMLS
• 2018-12-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-01-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-11-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+27.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,180 · -7.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.