2413 Halyard Way

Discovery Bay, CA 94505

$650,000C-

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,941 sqft · Built 1995 · SingleFamily · Pending · 12 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $6,295/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,409
• Tax + insurance: −$680
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,322
• Net cashflow: $885/mo
• Annual: $10,618/yr
• Cap rate: 7.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.83%
• DSCR: 1.26
• 1% rule: 0.97%
• Cash to close: $182,000

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $650k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $885 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $630k (3.2% below list).
• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $630k (3.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $20k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#619 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Liberty Union High (suburban): math 36% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #320 of 1,400 in CA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 173 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,169 units permitted in Contra Costa County in 2024 (896 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Contra Costa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $186k; list at $650k implies a 249% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 2.5% in Discovery Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.