2413 Halyard Way · Discovery Bay, CA 94505

$650,000

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,941 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1995 5,800 sqft lot Est $679k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.7/30.0
• ARV discount +9.4/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This home has 5 bedrooms!! 2.5 baths,living room with wood burning fireplace, seperate family room on a corner lot, within walking distance to the grocery store. Needs some TLC, needs paint and carpet. Close to delta for swimming,fishing and boating.This is a bank owned home sold as is

Key facts

• Corner-lot home
• Island bar seating
• Eat-in dining area

Tags

• CORNER-LOT HOME
• WOOD-BURNING FIREPLACE
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• ISLAND BAR SEATING
• EAT-IN DINING AREA
• FRESHLY PAINTED CABINETRY

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2 covered spaces; 2 garage spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; Built in 1995; Corner lot
• Construction: Stucco construction
• Exterior features: Front, side and back yard; Yard space with storage; Deck; Fenced yard; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on street level
• Flooring: Laminate; Tile; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 3 bathrooms total (2 full, 1 partial)
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air; Ceiling fans; Whole house fan
• Interior features: Family room; Breakfast bar; Solid surface counters; Wood-burning fireplace in the family room
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with washer and dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $650k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $885 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $630k (3.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $630k (3.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 2.5% in Discovery Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#619 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Liberty Union High (suburban): math 36% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #320 of 1,400 in CA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 173 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,169 units permitted in Contra Costa County in 2024 (896 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $20k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Contra Costa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $186k; list at $650k implies a 249% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $629,500 (3.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.83%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $679,350
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3749 Sailboat Dr	0.05mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,042 (+5%)	2mo	$639,000	$313	82
3965 Regatta Dr	0.30mi	5/3.0	2,043 (+5%)	6mo	$715,000	$350	72
4014 N Coral Ct	0.41mi	5/3.5	2,043 (+5%)	2mo	$640,000	$313	69
4033 Nautical Ct	0.39mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,906 (-2%)	9mo	$685,000	$359	65
4043 Regatta Dr	0.15mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,713 (-12%)	3mo	$629,800	$368	64
3985 S Coral Ct	0.45mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,945 (+0%)	9mo	$600,000	$308	64
4010 Goleta Pl	0.40mi	5/2.5	2,136 (+10%)	2mo	$675,000	$316	61
2522 Foghorn Way	0.12mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,713 (-12%)	17mo	$600,000	$350	54
3977 Seagull Ct	0.37mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,856 (-4%)	16mo	$635,000	$342	53
2224 Newport Ct	0.37mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,136 (+10%)	11mo	$755,000	$353	50
2072 Windward Pt	0.57mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,136 (+10%)	8mo	$900,000	$421	43
2427 Imperial Ct	0.62mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,760 (-9%)	19mo	$785,000	$446	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-49,125
• Equity at exit: $96,917

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.16×
• Total profit: $29,169
• Equity at exit: $56,200

Cash invested: $182,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94505

• Active inventory: 173
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,295 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,409
• Tax from tax record: −$409 /mo · $4,904/yr
• Insurance: −$271
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,322
• Net cashflow: $885

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,175

Max offer price $650,000

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $162,500
• Closing costs: $19,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4050 Pier Pt Discovery Bay, CA	4.0	2.0	2065	$6,295	$3.05	1d	1	0.46mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-18
   status $650,000 Pending 12 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $650,000 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $650,000 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $650,000 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $650,000 Active 8 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $650,000 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $650,000 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $650,000 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $650,000 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    remarks 699-char remark
11. 2026-06-07
    listed $650,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,904 · $409/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,940 · $412/mo
• Expected delta: +$36/yr (+$3/mo · 0.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 20 unhealthy d/yr today · 21 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $75,540
• − Mortgage interest: −$36,410
• − Property taxes: −$4,904
• − Insurance: −$3,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$6,043
• − Management: −$6,043
• − Depreciation: −$18,909
• Taxable loss: −$20
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5
• After-tax cash flow: $10,623/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Liberty Union High
• NCES district ID: 0621600
• Math proficiency: 36% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 69% ▲ 12.00%
• Median HH income: $87,001
• Composite: 50.24/100
• National rank: #4065
• State rank: #320 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Discovery Bay

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #619
• US rank: #19689

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Discovery Bay, CA
• Population (ZIP): 15,316

Population outlook (Contra Costa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,287,720 people
• By 2030: 1,364,937 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 1,506,209 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 1,624,373 · +26.1%
• By 2075: 1,853,193 · +43.9%
• By 2100: 1,901,231 · +47.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 13% Black 6% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 3% Russian 3%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 8% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Contra Costa

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+38.0) · D 67.3% · R 29.4% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: 37.8pp · 2024: 38.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+38.0 2020: D+45.3 2016: D+43.5 2012: D+33.7 2008: D+37.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -270.46%
• Current HPI: 184.2678
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+233.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $650,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2011-07-02 Sold (MLS) $186,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2011-06-07 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2011-05-19 Price Changed $194,900 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2011-04-20 Price Changed $202,500 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2011-03-19 Listed $215,900 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 1995-05-04 Sold (Public Records) $195,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,904 · +6.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.