46 Brown St

Sea Cliff, NY 11579

$499,000D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 761 sqft · Built 1919 · SingleFamily · Pending · 19 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,479/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,617
• Tax + insurance: −$851
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$731
• Net cashflow: $-720/mo
• Annual: $-8,636/yr
• Cap rate: 4.56%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.18%
• DSCR: 0.72
• 1% rule: 0.70%
• Cash to close: $139,720

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $499k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-720 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $372k (25.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $348k (30.3% below list).
• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($492k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $348k (30.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#133 in NY, #2,125 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities C-, cost of living F.
• North Shore Central School District (suburban): math 88% / reading 84% proficiency, ranked #24 of 590 in NY (top 4%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 5% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Sea Cliff Elementary School (math 92% / reading 92%, grade A+, #21 of 2,108 statewide, top 1%, 343 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 0% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1919 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 29 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 824 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (153 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Nassau County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 5 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $162k; list at $499k implies a 208% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 62% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1919 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.