28 Castle Ct

Boswell's Corner, VA 22554

$158,000B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Built 2000 · SingleFamily · Active · 33 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,250/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$829
• Tax + insurance: −$263
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$473
• Net cashflow: $686/mo
• Annual: $8,230/yr
• Cap rate: 11.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.60%
• DSCR: 1.83
• 1% rule: 1.42%
• Cash to close: $44,240

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $158k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $686 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $158k).
• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($153k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $153k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Stafford County Public School District (suburban): math 50% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #42 of 131 in VA (top 32%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Widewater Elementary (math 41% / reading 57%, grade D, #782 of 1,108 statewide, top 71%, 626 students, 76% FRL); Shirley C. Heim Middle (math 26% / reading 50%, grade F, #313 of 342 statewide, top 92%, 980 students, 57% FRL); Brooke Point High (math 44% / reading 82%, grade B-, #223 of 319 statewide, top 70%, 2,150 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools average 56% FRL vs 22% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 344 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 361 units permitted in Stafford County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Stafford County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.2% rent growth), your $44k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• This rent is only 18% of the median local income ($151k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.