4221 Heron Ave #17

McAllen, TX 78504

$169,500F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 980 sqft · Built 2025 · Condo · Active · 167 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,296/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$889
• Tax + insurance: −$349
• HOA: −$110
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$272
• Net cashflow: $-324/mo
• Annual: $-3,892/yr
• Cap rate: 4.47%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.52%
• DSCR: 0.71
• 1% rule: 0.76%
• Cash to close: $47,460

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $170k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-324 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $123k (27.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $130k (23.6% below list).
• It's been on market 167 days — a 12% lower offer ($149k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $123k (27.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#119 in TX, #3,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Sharyland ISD (urban): math 34% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #406 of 826 in TX (top 49%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Donna Wernecke El (math 23% / reading 35%, grade F, #2,668 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 697 students, 71% FRL); Sharyland North J H (math 46% / reading 42%, grade D, #512 of 1,662 statewide, top 32%, 806 students, 74% FRL); Sharyland Pioneer H S (math 31% / reading 51%, grade F, #774 of 1,632 statewide, top 49%, 1,471 students, 68% FRL) — zoned schools average 71% FRL vs 55% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 1064 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 73d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 68% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 167 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?