4221 Heron Ave #17 · McAllen, TX 78504

$169,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 980 sqft · Condo · 167 Days on market

Built 2025 Good condition $173/sqft · at area comps Est $172k · at est. $110/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +8.2/15.0
• Cash flow +6.9/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• DSCR +1.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Buy your 3 bed condo in main location in McAllen and save your rent payments these front units are very nice with side patios. In front of designated common area: Pickleball court, Half basketball court, Jogging trails and Community Park with BBQ pits and Playground. Each unit has 3 bed & 2 bath, with 2 assigned parking spaces, 1 is covered parking. Beautiful gated subdivision on Bentsen off Lark with common area park! Dishwasher, Washer and dryer connections, spacious main walk-in closet, one shower and one tub. private patio! This is a front unit with side low maintenance side patio. This is a great location for first time home buyers, investors or for downsizing. Low Association fee of $110includes insurance, grass trim, common areas, gate and more, seller will pay title!

Key facts

• Pickleball court
• Community park
• Jogging trails

Tags

• SIDE PATIOS
• PICKLEBALL COURT
• HALF BASKETBALL COURT
• JOGGING TRAILS
• COMMUNITY PARK
• BBQ PITS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $170k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-324 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $123k (27.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $130k (23.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $123k (27.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#119 in TX, #3,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Sharyland ISD (urban): math 34% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #406 of 826 in TX (top 49%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Donna Wernecke El (math 23% / reading 35%, grade F, #2,668 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 697 students, 71% FRL); Sharyland North J H (math 46% / reading 42%, grade D, #512 of 1,662 statewide, top 32%, 806 students, 74% FRL); Sharyland Pioneer H S (math 31% / reading 51%, grade F, #774 of 1,632 statewide, top 49%, 1,471 students, 68% FRL) — zoned schools average 71% FRL vs 55% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 1064 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 73d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 68% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 167 days — a 12% lower offer ($149k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $122,569 (27.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 167 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.47%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.52%
• DSCR: 0.71
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $172,000
• List price: $169,500
• Delta: -1.45%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4221 Heron Ave Unit 17 Front	0.00mi	3/2.0	980 (0%)	0mo	$169,500	$173	100
4225 Heron Ave #15	0.00mi	3/2.0	980 (0%)	1mo	$175,000	$179	99
4225 Heron Ave #13	0.00mi	3/2.0	980 (0%)	2mo	$169,500	$173	98
4225 Heron Ave #14	0.00mi	3/2.0	980 (0%)	2mo	$169,500	$173	98
4305 Heron Ave #8	0.00mi	3/2.0	980 (0%)	3mo	$174,500	$178	97
6006 N 48th Ln	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,158 (+18%)	0mo	$155,000	$134	73
4805 Jay Ave	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,163 (+19%)	4mo	$180,000	$155	66
5213 N Taylor Rd	0.23mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,114 (+14%)	2mo	$120,000	$108	60
5707 N 43rd Ln	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,203 (+23%)	1mo	$150,000	$125	54
5801 N 39th St	0.70mi	3/3.0	1,047 (+7%)	6mo	$195,000	$186	47
3517 Yucca Ave	1.06mi	3/2.0	1,177 (+20%)	5mo	$205,000	$174	36
3808 Bluebird Ave	0.79mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,213 (+24%)	1mo	$169,000	$139	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.57% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.02×
• Total profit: $-48,553
• Equity at exit: $25,273

10-year hold

• IRR: -36.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.49×
• Total profit: $-70,628
• Equity at exit: $14,655

Cash invested: $47,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 1 active · 3 under contract
• Median asking: $169,000 ($172/sqft)
• Median days on market: 145 d
• This list price: 100% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +1.8% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78504

• Home prices YoY: -29.4%
• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 1064
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,296 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$889
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$212 /mo · $2,542/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$110
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$272
• Net cashflow: $-324

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,706

Max offer price $122,569

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-207	-5% $-266	+0% $-324	+5% $-383	+10% $-441
Rent	-10% $-427	-5% $-376	+0% $-324	+5% $-273	+10% $-222
Rate	-1.0pp $-239	-0.5pp $-281	base $-324	+0.5pp $-368	+1.0pp $-413

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,375
• Closing costs: $5,085
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4225 Heron Ave #14 McAllen, TX	3.0	2.0	952	$1,100	$1.16	15d	1	0.03mi
4305 Heron Ave Unit 6 McAllen, TX	3.0	2.0	980	$1,400	$1.43	15d	1	0.03mi
5609 Nightingale Ave Unit 2 Mission, TX	2.0	2.0	900	$1,200	$1.33	93d	1	0.55mi
5701 Nightingale Mission, TX	2.0	2.0	910	$1,000	$1.10	93d	1	0.58mi
5701 Nightingale Mission, TX	2.0	2.0	910	$950	$1.04	72d	1	0.58mi
5701 Nightingale Ave Unit 3 Mission, TX	2.0	2.0	1056	$950	$0.90	93d	1	0.58mi
5709 Nightingale Ave Unit 5709-4 Palmhurst, TX	3.0	2.0	1010	$1,100	$1.09	15d	1	0.61mi
5709 Nightingale Ave Unit 1 McAllen, TX	3.0	2.0	1010	$1,050	$1.04	93d	1	0.62mi
5708 Nightingale Ave Unit 2 McAllen, TX	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,150	$1.05	15d	1	0.62mi
5800 Nightingale Ave #1 Mission, TX	2.0	2.0	987	$1,100	$1.11	93d	1	0.64mi
5804 Nightingale Ave Unit 4 Mission, TX	2.0	2.0	983	$1,000	$1.02	15d	1	0.65mi
5605 Puffin Ave Unit 4 Palmhurst, TX	2.0	1.5	980	$1,100	$1.12	15d	1	0.66mi
5601 Puffin Ave Unit 1 Mission, TX	2.0	2.0	930	$1,075	$1.16	72d	1	0.67mi
5900 Nightingale Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1020	$1,100	$1.08	72d	1	0.68mi
5701 Puffin Ave Unit 3 Palmhurst, TX	2.0	2.0	990	$990	$1.00	72d	1	0.69mi
5904 Nightingale Ave Unit 5904-4 Palmhurst, TX	2.0	2.0	960	$1,000	$1.04	15d	1	0.69mi
6902 N 56th Ln Unit 1 Mission, TX	2.0	2.0	990	$990	$1.00	72d	1	0.70mi
5700 Puffin Ave Unit 2 Palmhurst, TX	2.0	2.0	1026	$1,050	$1.02	93d	1	0.72mi
5609 Quail Ave Unit 3 Palmhurst, TX	2.0	2.0	970	$950	$0.98	68d	1	0.73mi
5600 Quail Ave Unit 1 Mission, TX	2.0	2.0	979	$990	$1.01	15d	1	0.73mi
5805 Puffin Ave Mission, TX	2.0	2.0	999	$1,000	$1.00	93d	1	0.73mi
5805 Puffin Ave Unit 1 Palmhurst, TX	2.0	2.0	1093	$1,000	$0.91	63d	1	0.73mi
5600 Quail Ave Unit 3 Palmhurst, TX	2.0	2.0	979	$1,100	$1.12	15d	1	0.73mi
5708 Puffin Ave Unit 1 Palmhurst, TX	2.0	2.0	1026	$1,050	$1.02	93d	1	0.74mi
5905 Puffin Ave Unit 1 Mission, TX	2.0	2.0	900	$1,200	$1.33	93d	1	0.75mi
5601 Swallow Ave Unit 1 Palmhurst, TX	2.0	2.0	980	$1,100	$1.12	93d	1	0.75mi
7102 N 56th Ln Unit 7102-1 56th Palmhurst, TX	2.0	2.0	980	$1,075	$1.10	15d	1	0.76mi
5605 Swallow Ave Unit 3 Palmhurst, TX	2.0	2.0	980	$1,000	$1.02	93d	1	0.76mi
5900 Puffin Ave Unit 1 Palmhurst, TX	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,000	$1.00	63d	1	0.77mi
5900 Puffin Ave Unit 4 Palmhurst, TX	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,050	$1.05	15d	1	0.77mi
5609 Swallow Ave Unit 2 Palmhurst, TX	3.0	2.0	980	$1,190	$1.21	93d	1	0.78mi
5900 Puffin Ave Unit 2 Palmhurst, TX	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,100	$1.10	93d	1	0.78mi
5909 Puffin Ave Unit 3 Palmhurst, TX	2.0	2.0	932	$900	$0.97	68d	1	0.79mi
5701 Swallow Ave Unit 3 Palmhurst, TX	2.0	2.0	1064	$1,100	$1.03	15d	1	0.79mi
5716 N 38th St McAllen, TX	3.0	2.0	1026	$1,400	$1.36	93d	1	0.81mi
5805 Swallow Ave Unit 1 McAllen, TX	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,150	$1.06	63d	1	0.82mi
5805 Swallow Ave Unit 3 McAllen, TX	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,150	$1.06	93d	1	0.82mi
5700 Swallow Ave Unit 4 Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1093	$1,250	$1.14	63d	1	0.82mi
5608 Sandpiper Ave Apt 1 Mission, TX	2.0	2.0	980	$1,095	$1.12	15d	1	0.83mi
5901 Swallow Ave Unit 1 McAllen, TX	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,095	$1.01	72d	1	0.83mi

HOA detail $110/mo · $1,320/yr condo

• Likely covers: securityparking
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 39 events

1. 2026-07-18
   days on market $169,500 Active 167 DOM
2. 2026-07-16
   days on market $169,500 Active 165 DOM
3. 2026-07-16
   days on market $169,500 Active 164 DOM
4. 2026-07-14
   days on market $169,500 Active 163 DOM
5. 2026-07-14
   days on market $169,500 Active 162 DOM
6. 2026-07-12
   days on market $169,500 Active 161 DOM
7. 2026-07-11
   days on market $169,500 Active 160 DOM
8. 2026-07-10
   days on market $169,500 Active 159 DOM
9. 2026-07-09
   days on market $169,500 Active 158 DOM
10. 2026-07-07
    days on market $169,500 Active 156 DOM
11. 2026-07-06
    days on market $169,500 Active 155 DOM
12. 2026-07-05
    days on market $169,500 Active 154 DOM
13. 2026-07-04
    days on market $169,500 Active 153 DOM
14. 2026-07-03
    days on market $169,500 Active 152 DOM
15. 2026-07-02
    days on market $169,500 Active 151 DOM
16. 2026-07-01
    days on market $169,500 Active 150 DOM
17. 2026-06-30
    days on market $169,500 Active 149 DOM
18. 2026-06-29
    days on market $169,500 Active 148 DOM
19. 2026-06-28
    days on market $169,500 Active 147 DOM
20. 2026-06-28
    days on market $169,500 Active 146 DOM
21. 2026-06-27
    days on market $169,500 Active 145 DOM
22. 2026-06-25
    days on market $169,500 Active 143 DOM
23. 2026-06-23
    days on market $169,500 Active 141 DOM
24. 2026-06-22
    days on market $169,500 Active 140 DOM
25. 2026-06-18
    days on market $169,500 Active 137 DOM
26. 2026-06-17
    days on market $169,500 Active 136 DOM
27. 2026-06-16
    days on market $169,500 Active 135 DOM
28. 2026-06-15
    days on market $169,500 Active 134 DOM
29. 2026-06-14
    days on market $169,500 Active 132 DOM
30. 2026-06-10
    days on market $169,500 Active 129 DOM
31. 2026-06-09
    days on market $169,500 Active 128 DOM
32. 2026-06-08
    days on market $169,500 Active 127 DOM
33. 2026-06-07
    days on market $169,500 Active 126 DOM
34. 2026-06-03
    days on market $169,500 Active 122 DOM
35. 2026-06-02
    days on market $169,500 Active 121 DOM
36. 2026-06-01
    days on market $169,500 Active 120 DOM
37. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,500 Active 119 DOM
38. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,500 Active 118 DOM
39. 2026-01-31
    listed $169,500 Active 793-char remark

    Show marketing remark (793 chars)

    Buy your 3 bed condo in main location in McAllen and save your rent payments these front units are very nice with side patios. In front of designated common area: Pickleball court, Half basketball court, Jogging trails and Community Park with BBQ pits and Playground. Each unit has 3 bed & 2 bath, with 2 assigned parking spaces, 1 is covered parking. Beautiful gated subdivision on Bentsen off Lark with common area park! Dishwasher, Washer and dryer connections, spacious main walk-in closet, one shower and one tub. private patio! This is a front unit with side low maintenance side patio. This is a great location for first time home buyers, investors or for downsizing. Low Association fee of $110includes insurance, grass trim, common areas, gate and more, seller will pay title!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X · 78% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,547
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,495
• − Property taxes: −$2,542
• − Insurance: −$1,645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,244
• − Management: −$1,244
• − HOA: −$1,320
• − Depreciation: −$4,931
• Taxable loss: −$6,874
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,650
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,242/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This well-maintained and modern 3-bedroom condo is move-in ready with a good condition score and minimal maintenance required. It offers a great location with access to community amenities.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Replace light fixtures — Modernizes the space and improves energy efficiency ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 38/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Donna Wernecke El F TX #2,668/4,322 Nat'l #27,846/41,679 Middle Sharyland North J H D TX #512/1,662 Nat'l #4,963/14,009 High Sharyland Pioneer H S F TX #774/1,632 Nat'l #7,961/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sharyland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4839930
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -35.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $57,792
• Composite: 34.38/100
• National rank: #5214
• State rank: #406 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 76/100

Livability — McAllen

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #119
• US rank: #3771

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: McAllen, TX
• County: Hidalgo County · 955,232 people
• City population: 144,650
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• Population (ZIP): 63,094
• Household income: $81,905
• Rent vs Own: 30.1% rent · 69.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 82% Two or more races 39% White 11% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 75%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 24% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 34% English-only · Spanish 62% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -80.87%
• Current HPI: 194.1764
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.57%
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-01-31 Listed $169,500 MCALLENMLS