1664 Ponderosa Ln #66

Lake of the Woods, AZ 85929

$39,500B-

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 440 sqft · Built 1959 · Manufactured · Active · 14 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,193/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$207
• Tax + insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$251
• Net cashflow: $670/mo
• Annual: $8,035/yr
• Cap rate: 26.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 72.65%
• DSCR: 4.23
• 1% rule: 3.02%
• Cash to close: $11,060

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $40k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $670 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $273 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#206 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Blue Ridge Unified School District No. 32 (4397) (town): math 21% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #139 of 249 in AZ (top 56%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 257 active listings in the ZIP; 485 units permitted in Navajo County in 2024 (11 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Navajo County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 26.6% vs local median 2.4% in Lake of the Woods — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Minor: Paint — Paint appears faded on exterior
• Minor: Porch flooring — Worn carpet on porch