1664 Ponderosa Ln #66 · Lake of the Woods, AZ 85929

$39,500

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 440 sqft · Manufactured · 14 Days on market

Built 1959 Fair condition $90/sqft · at area comps Est $40k · at est. ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.3/15.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Escape to the cool pines of Lakeside with this well-maintained single-wide manufactured home in at 55+ community, perfect as a summer retreat or year-round living. Tucked beneath tall trees, this property offers privacy, fresh mountain air, and a relaxed lifestyle just minutes from town, the hospital, the casino, and the conveniences of Pinetop-Lakeside. Enjoy a cozy interior with a functional layout, covered deck for outdoor living, and room to park your toys. Easy access to lakes, trails, and all the beauty of the White Mountains. The Harley Davidson pictured is negotiable outside of escrow.

Key facts

• Covered deck
• Privacy
• Easy access to lakes

Tags

• COVERED DECK
• EASY ACCESS TO LAKES
• EASY ACCESS TO TRAILS
• PRIVACY
• FRESH MOUNTAIN AIR

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $40k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $670 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• Cap rate 26.6% vs local median 2.4% in Lake of the Woods — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#206 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Blue Ridge Unified School District No. 32 (4397) (town): math 21% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #139 of 249 in AZ (top 56%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 257 active listings in the ZIP; 485 units permitted in Navajo County in 2024 (11 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $273 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Navajo County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $39,500

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 26.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 72.65%
• DSCR: 4.23
• GRM: 2.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $40,213
• List price: $39,500
• Delta: 4.44%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 72.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.28×
• Total profit: $36,266
• Equity at exit: $5,890

10-year hold

• IRR: 76.3%
• Equity multiple: 8.83×
• Total profit: $86,570
• Equity at exit: $3,415

Cash invested: $11,060 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85929

• Home prices YoY: -16.9%
• Active inventory: 257
• Price-to-rent: 2.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,193 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$207
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$49 /mo · $592/yr
• Insurance: −$16
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$251
• Net cashflow: $670

Break-even live

Break-even rent $346

Max offer price $39,500

Occupancy floor 39%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,875
• Closing costs: $1,185
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $39,500 Active 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $39,500 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $39,500 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $39,500 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $39,500 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $39,500 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $39,500 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $39,500 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $39,500 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $39,500 Active 2 DOM
11. 2026-06-06
    pricedays on marketlisting id $39,500 Active 1 DOM
12. 2026-04-29
    price $42,000 600-char remark

    Show marketing remark (600 chars)

    Escape to the cool pines of Lakeside with this well-maintained single-wide manufactured home in at 55+ community, perfect as a summer retreat or year-round living. Tucked beneath tall trees, this property offers privacy, fresh mountain air, and a relaxed lifestyle just minutes from town, the hospital, the casino, and the conveniences of Pinetop-Lakeside. Enjoy a cozy interior with a functional layout, covered deck for outdoor living, and room to park your toys. Easy access to lakes, trails, and all the beauty of the White Mountains. The Harley Davidson pictured is negotiable outside of escrow.

13. 2025-07-11
    listed $45,000 Active 600-char remark

    Show marketing remark (600 chars)

    Escape to the cool pines of Lakeside with this well-maintained single-wide manufactured home in at 55+ community, perfect as a summer retreat or year-round living. Tucked beneath tall trees, this property offers privacy, fresh mountain air, and a relaxed lifestyle just minutes from town, the hospital, the casino, and the conveniences of Pinetop-Lakeside. Enjoy a cozy interior with a functional layout, covered deck for outdoor living, and room to park your toys. Easy access to lakes, trails, and all the beauty of the White Mountains. The Harley Davidson pictured is negotiable outside of escrow.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥86°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,318
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,213
• − Property taxes: −$592
• − Insurance: −$198
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,145
• − Management: −$1,145
• − Depreciation: −$1,149
• Taxable income: $7,875
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,890
• After-tax cash flow: $6,145/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Fair 45/100 Cosmetic rehab

A well-maintained single-wide manufactured home with average exterior and interior condition, offering a cozy retreat in a serene lakeside setting.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Paint — Paint appears faded on exterior
• Minor Porch flooring — Worn carpet on porch

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal
• Rental Replace carpet on porch — Fresh carpet improves comfort and appearance

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Paint · Paint appears faded on exterior	Minor	$500–3,000
Porch flooring · Worn carpet on porch	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal ↑
• Rental Replace carpet on porch — Fresh carpet improves comfort and appearance ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Blue Ridge Unified School District No. 32 (4397)
• NCES district ID: 0406580
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $49,406
• Composite: 21.97/100
• National rank: #8213
• State rank: #139 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Lake of the Woods

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #206
• US rank: #20890

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake of the Woods, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 7,280

Population outlook (Navajo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,760 people
• By 2030: 103,301 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 97,070 · -8.2%
• By 2050: 88,850 · -16.0%
• By 2075: 65,180 · -38.4%
• By 2100: 37,281 · -64.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 11% Native American 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 8% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Navajo

• 2024 margin: R (+17.2) · D 40.9% · R 58.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.5pp toward R · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -17.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.2 2020: R+8.2 2016: R+7.9 2012: R+8.4 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.03%
• Current HPI: 383.9587
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-6.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $42,000 WMMLS
• 2025-07-11 Listed $45,000 WMMLS