528 Spencer Rd

Ithaca, NY 14850

$79,000B

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,148 sqft · Built 1939 · SingleFamily · Active · 165 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,861/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$414
• Tax + insurance: −$396
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$601
• Net cashflow: $1,450/mo
• Annual: $17,402/yr
• Cap rate: 29.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 81.68%
• DSCR: 4.63
• 1% rule: 3.62%
• Cash to close: $22,120

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $79k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($17k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $79k).
• It's been on market 165 days — a 12% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $70k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $546 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#210 in NY, #3,240 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: housing C-, employment D+, cost of living D.
• Ithaca City School District (urban): math 57% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #195 of 590 in NY (top 33%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.7% of price; flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1939 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 327 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 382 units permitted in Tompkins County in 2024 (208 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Tompkins County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $43k; list at $79k implies a 84% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.2% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 29.2% vs local median 5.3% in Ithaca — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $2,861/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($71k/yr) (locally 5169% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 165 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1939 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.