528 Spencer Rd · Ithaca, NY 14850

$79,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,148 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 165 Days on market

Built 1939 0.34 ac lot $69/sqft · 73% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The investment opportunity of your dreams. Get your hands on a complete fixer upper in the ideal neighborhood. Located walking distance from Wegmans and The Commons but tucked away on a quiet and cozy street. Three bedrooms and one and a half bathrooms taken down to the studs and ready to be fixed up in any way you desire. This home has been prepped for the perfect investor, flipper, or someone looking to customize their own home. Come see for yourself the endless possibilities this home has to offer.

Key facts

• Quiet street
• 0.34 acre lot
• Built 1939

Tags

• WALKING DISTANCE FROM WEGMANS
• QUIET STREET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $79k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($17k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $79k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 29.2% vs local median 5.3% in Ithaca — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#210 in NY, #3,240 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: housing C-, employment D+, cost of living D.
• Ithaca City School District (urban): math 57% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #195 of 590 in NY (top 33%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 327 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 382 units permitted in Tompkins County in 2024 (208 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,861/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($71k/yr) (locally 5169% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $546 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tompkins County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.2% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 165 days — a 12% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $43k; list at $79k implies a 84% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.7% of price; flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1939 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $69,520 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 165 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1939 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.62% ✓
• Cap rate: 29.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 81.68%
• DSCR: 4.63
• GRM: 2.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $295,657
• List price: $79,000
• Delta: -73.28%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
336 Spencer Rd	0.30mi	3/1.0	1,224 (+7%)	1mo	$136,000	$111	74
351 Spencer Rd	0.26mi	3/1.0	1,248 (+9%)	1mo	$240,000	$192	72
109 Hyers St	0.68mi	3/1.0	1,234 (+8%)	8mo	$250,000	$203	49
713 S Plain St	0.57mi	3/1.0	1,220 (+6%)	18mo	$245,000	$201	48
504 S Albany St	0.73mi	3/1.0	1,113 (-3%)	16mo	$195,000	$175	47
440 N Titus Ave	0.70mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,153 (+0%)	19mo	$245,000	$212	44
602 S Albany St	0.67mi	3/1.0	1,296 (+13%)	6mo	$130,000	$100	42
314 Spencer Rd	0.55mi	3/1.0	1,252 (+9%)	22mo	$250,000	$200	41
108 Park St	0.60mi	3/1.0	1,311 (+14%)	23mo	$260,000	$198	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.22% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 81.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.90×
• Total profit: $86,298
• Equity at exit: $11,779

10-year hold

• IRR: 85.7%
• Equity multiple: 11.08×
• Total profit: $222,966
• Equity at exit: $6,830

Cash invested: $22,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14850

• Rents YoY: 5.2%
• Active inventory: 327
• Price-to-rent: 2.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,861 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$414
• Tax from tax record: −$308 /mo · $3,691/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$601
• Net cashflow: $1,450

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,026

Max offer price $79,000

Occupancy floor 44%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,714	-5% $1,473	+0% $1,450	+5% $1,428	+10% $1,405
Rent	-10% $1,224	-5% $1,337	+0% $1,450	+5% $1,563	+10% $1,676
Rate	-1.0pp $1,490	-0.5pp $1,470	base $1,450	+0.5pp $1,430	+1.0pp $1,409

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,750
• Closing costs: $2,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
324 Spencer Rd Ithaca, NY	2.0	1.0	850	$2,545	$2.99	44d	8	0.41mi
815 S Aurora St Ithaca, NY	2.0–4.0	1.0	936	$2,125	$2.27	44d	1	0.78mi
320 Hillview Pl Ithaca, NY	2.0–3.0	1.0	800	$2,100	$2.62	44d	4	1.01mi
430 W State St Ithaca, NY	2.0	1.0–2.0	727	$3,410	$4.69	44d	34	1.04mi
323 Taughannock Blvd Ithaca, NY	2.0	1.0–2.5	1167	$6,402	$5.48	44d	6	1.20mi
139 Chestnut St Ithaca, NY	1.0–3.0	1.0	850	$1,895	$2.23	44d	1	1.21mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $79,000 Active 165 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $79,000 Active 164 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $79,000 Active 163 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,000 Active 162 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,000 Active 161 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $79,000 Active 159 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $79,000 Active 158 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $79,000 Active 156 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $79,000 Active 155 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $79,000 Active 154 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $79,000 Active 153 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $79,000 Active 150 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $79,000 Active 148 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $79,000 Active 147 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,000 Active 146 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $79,000 Active 145 DOM
17. 2026-05-06
    price $79,000 506-char remark

    Show marketing remark (506 chars)

    The investment opportunity of your dreams. Get your hands on a complete fixer upper in the ideal neighborhood. Located walking distance from Wegmans and The Commons but tucked away on a quiet and cozy street. Three bedrooms and one and a half bathrooms taken down to the studs and ready to be fixed up in any way you desire. This home has been prepped for the perfect investor, flipper, or someone looking to customize their own home. Come see for yourself the endless possibilities this home has to offer.

18. 2026-04-01
    status Active 506-char remark

    Show marketing remark (506 chars)

    The investment opportunity of your dreams. Get your hands on a complete fixer upper in the ideal neighborhood. Located walking distance from Wegmans and The Commons but tucked away on a quiet and cozy street. Three bedrooms and one and a half bathrooms taken down to the studs and ready to be fixed up in any way you desire. This home has been prepped for the perfect investor, flipper, or someone looking to customize their own home. Come see for yourself the endless possibilities this home has to offer.

19. 2026-03-23
    historical Active Under Contract 506-char remark

    Show marketing remark (506 chars)

    The investment opportunity of your dreams. Get your hands on a complete fixer upper in the ideal neighborhood. Located walking distance from Wegmans and The Commons but tucked away on a quiet and cozy street. Three bedrooms and one and a half bathrooms taken down to the studs and ready to be fixed up in any way you desire. This home has been prepped for the perfect investor, flipper, or someone looking to customize their own home. Come see for yourself the endless possibilities this home has to offer.

20. 2026-03-18
    price $89,000 506-char remark

    Show marketing remark (506 chars)

    The investment opportunity of your dreams. Get your hands on a complete fixer upper in the ideal neighborhood. Located walking distance from Wegmans and The Commons but tucked away on a quiet and cozy street. Three bedrooms and one and a half bathrooms taken down to the studs and ready to be fixed up in any way you desire. This home has been prepped for the perfect investor, flipper, or someone looking to customize their own home. Come see for yourself the endless possibilities this home has to offer.

21. 2026-01-05
    listed $99,000 Active 506-char remark

    Show marketing remark (506 chars)

    The investment opportunity of your dreams. Get your hands on a complete fixer upper in the ideal neighborhood. Located walking distance from Wegmans and The Commons but tucked away on a quiet and cozy street. Three bedrooms and one and a half bathrooms taken down to the studs and ready to be fixed up in any way you desire. This home has been prepped for the perfect investor, flipper, or someone looking to customize their own home. Come see for yourself the endless possibilities this home has to offer.

22. 1996-08-20
    soldstatus $43,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,691 · $308/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,691 · $308/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥93°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,336
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,425
• − Property taxes: −$3,691
• − Insurance: −$1,062
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,747
• − Management: −$2,747
• − Depreciation: −$2,298
• Taxable income: $17,367
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,168
• After-tax cash flow: $13,234/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ithaca City School District
• NCES district ID: 3615570
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 71% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $46,528
• Composite: 54.01/100
• National rank: #1397
• State rank: #195 of 590 in NY

Livability — Ithaca

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #210
• US rank: #3240

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D Crime C Employment D+ Housing C- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ithaca, NY
• County: Tompkins County · 68,610 people
• City population: 68,610
• Metro: Ithaca, NY
• Population (ZIP): 68,610
• Household income: $71,445
• Rent vs Own: 55.2% rent · 44.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 5169.0

Population outlook (Tompkins County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 113,958 people
• By 2030: 118,774 · +4.2%
• By 2040: 125,927 · +10.5%
• By 2050: 133,599 · +17.2%
• By 2075: 156,759 · +37.6%
• By 2100: 169,896 · +49.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Asian 13% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 8% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 3% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 18% · China, Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Chinese 5% Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Tompkins

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+50.6) · D 75.3% · R 24.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +8.6pp toward D · 2008: 42.1pp · 2024: 50.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+50.6 2020: D+49.2 2016: D+42.1 2012: D+39.8 2008: D+42.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -276.59%
• Current HPI: 389.7215
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.22%
• Metro: Ithaca, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+83.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $79,000 IBRMLS
• 2026-04-01 Relisted — IBRMLS
• 2026-03-23 Contingent — IBRMLS
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $89,000 IBRMLS
• 2026-01-05 Listed $99,000 IBRMLS
• 1996-08-20 Sold (Public Records) $43,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,691 · -5.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.