10616 Godfrey Ln

Union Park, FL 32825

$300,000C-

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,719 sqft · Built 1970 · SingleFamily · Pending · 21 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,390/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax + insurance: −$273
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$502
• Net cashflow: $42/mo
• Annual: $500/yr
• Cap rate: 6.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.59%
• DSCR: 1.03
• 1% rule: 0.80%
• Cash to close: $84,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $42 ($500/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $239k (20.3% below list).
• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($296k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $239k (20.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#153 in FL, #2,308 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A, commute A-; Watch: amenities F, health & safety F.
• Orange (suburban): math 46% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #43 of 73 in FL (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lawton Chiles Elementary (math 58% / reading 49%, grade C, #949 of 2,144 statewide, top 45%, 561 students, 67% FRL); Union Park Middle (math 26% / reading 25%, grade F, #512 of 571 statewide, top 90%, 706 students, 74% FRL); University High (math 25% / reading 57%, grade F, #289 of 667 statewide, top 44%, 2,555 students, 45% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 281 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 8,053 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,133 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Orange County population projected at +52% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $229k; 31% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.1% in Union Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($82k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.