10616 Godfrey Ln · Union Park, FL 32825

$300,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,719 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 21 Days on market

Built 1970 0.26 ac lot Est $409k · 27% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.1/30.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Financing fell apart. Back on market. If you've shown it before, come again. Seller made all repairs per home inspect. & upgraded fixtures, flring, paint, etc. Enjoy privacy & safety of a cul-de-sac. 2 car gar+ pad on the side, large to fit RV & boat. Two storage sheds, screened porch, pool and still a huge yard! No HOA! Close to UCF, Waterford Lakes Shopping, 408 & 417.

Key facts

• Full renovation
• Area attractions
• Shopping

Tags

• FULL RENOVATION
• EASY ACCESS TO MAJOR ROADWAYS
• SHOPPING
• DINING
• AREA ATTRACTIONS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $42 ($500/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $239k (20.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $239k (20.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.1% in Union Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#153 in FL, #2,308 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A, commute A-; Watch: amenities F, health & safety F.
• Orange (suburban): math 46% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #43 of 73 in FL (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lawton Chiles Elementary (math 58% / reading 49%, grade C, #949 of 2,144 statewide, top 45%, 561 students, 67% FRL); Union Park Middle (math 26% / reading 25%, grade F, #512 of 571 statewide, top 90%, 706 students, 74% FRL); University High (math 25% / reading 57%, grade F, #289 of 667 statewide, top 44%, 2,555 students, 45% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 281 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 8,053 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,133 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($82k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Orange County population projected at +52% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($296k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $229k; 31% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $239,013 (20.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.59%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $409,122
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
748 Woodvalley Way	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,716 (-0%)	7mo	$390,000	$227	78
737 Hardwick Ct	0.30mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,715 (-0%)	2mo	$415,000	$242	75
633 Cypress Tree Ct	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,842 (+7%)	2mo	$405,000	$220	64
10589 Jepson St	0.17mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,715 (-0%)	23mo	$376,000	$219	63
745 Innsbruck Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,711 (-0%)	17mo	$379,900	$222	62
1242 Murdock Blvd	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,632 (-5%)	9mo	$385,000	$236	53
10753 Wildlife Pl	0.67mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,638 (-5%)	10mo	$427,500	$261	44
952 Sonata Ln	0.46mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,942 (+13%)	9mo	$410,000	$211	42
1008 Narcissus Ln	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,499 (-13%)	21mo	$357,500	$238	42
1125 Murdock Blvd	0.37mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,530 (-11%)	16mo	$369,000	$241	42
10436 Jepson St	0.43mi	3/2.5	1,512 (-12%)	20mo	$370,000	$245	41
10819 Wildlife Pl	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,495 (-13%)	22mo	$395,500	$265	25

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.77% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-46,617
• Equity at exit: $44,731

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-39,853
• Equity at exit: $25,939

Cash invested: $84,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32825

• Rents YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 281
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,390 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$148 /mo · $1,780/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$502
• Net cashflow: $42

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,337

Max offer price $300,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $211	-5% $127	+0% $42	+5% $-43	+10% $-128
Rent	-10% $-147	-5% $-53	+0% $42	+5% $136	+10% $230
Rate	-1.0pp $193	-0.5pp $118	base $42	+0.5pp $-36	+1.0pp $-115

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,000
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10665 Huntridge Rd Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1502	$2,400	$1.60	25d	1	0.32mi
10945 Tangora St Orlando, FL	4.0	2.0	1353	$2,225	$1.64	25d	1	0.39mi
10600 Bloomfield Dr Orlando, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	938	$2,287	$2.44	0d	22	0.42mi
861 Blackgum Ct Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1280	$2,450	$1.91	9d	1	0.49mi
1206 Culver Rd Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	1241	$2,550	$2.05	25d	1	0.60mi
647 Carey Way Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1780	$2,400	$1.35	25d	1	0.74mi
11147 Acme Dr Unit 207D Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	1127	$1,800	$1.60	25d	1	0.83mi
10038 Vista Laguna Dr Orlando, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1008	$2,526	$2.51	0d	16	1.00mi
9942 Dean Oaks Ct Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1140	$2,095	$1.84	23d	1	1.01mi
834 Oberry Hoover Rd Orlando, FL	2.0	1.0	1061	$1,750	$1.65	25d	1	1.06mi
427 Fieldstream Blvd Orlando, FL	4.0	2.0	1896	$3,150	$1.66	19d	1	1.26mi
307 Flyrod Cir Orlando, FL	4.0	3.0	2213	$2,745	$1.24	25d	1	1.26mi
11500 Judge Ave Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1394	$2,595	$1.86	19d	1	1.29mi
12101 Fountainbrook Blvd Orlando, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	968	$2,453	$2.53	0d	16	1.38mi
11314 Rouse Run Cir Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1768	$2,635	$1.49	6d	1	1.41mi
10169 Cody Ln Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1158	$2,249	$1.94	6d	1	1.44mi
314 Muscogee Ln Orlando, FL	3.0	2.5	1296	$2,500	$1.93	25d	1	1.46mi
10420 Groton St Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,500	$2.08	25d	1	1.47mi
469 Glastonbury Dr Orlando, FL	3.0	2.5	1300	$2,195	$1.69	23d	1	1.47mi
9342 Shepton St Orlando, FL	3.0	2.5	1714	$2,250	$1.31	25d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-03-05
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-12
   listed $300,000 Active
3. 2025-11-18
   status Active
4. 2025-10-16
   status Pending
5. 2025-10-16
   price $325,000
6. 2025-10-14
   listed $279,900 Active
7. 2007-09-06
   soldstatus $229,000
8. 2007-08-21
   soldstatus $229,000 397-char remark

   Show marketing remark (397 chars)

   Financing fell apart. Back on market. If you've shown it before, come again. Seller made all repairs per home inspect. & upgraded fixtures, flring, paint, etc. Enjoy privacy & safety of a cul-de-sac. 2 car gar+ pad on the side, large to fit RV & boat. Two storage sheds, screened porch, pool and still a huge yard! No HOA! Close to UCF, Waterford Lakes Shopping, 408 & 417.

9. 2007-04-16
   listed $236,000 397-char remark

   Show marketing remark (397 chars)

   Financing fell apart. Back on market. If you've shown it before, come again. Seller made all repairs per home inspect. & upgraded fixtures, flring, paint, etc. Enjoy privacy & safety of a cul-de-sac. 2 car gar+ pad on the side, large to fit RV & boat. Two storage sheds, screened porch, pool and still a huge yard! No HOA! Close to UCF, Waterford Lakes Shopping, 408 & 417.

10. 2004-03-01
    soldstatus $156,000
11. 1996-08-19
    soldstatus $86,900
12. 1973-06-01
    soldstatus $30,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,780 · $148/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,490 · $208/mo
• Expected delta: +$710/yr (+$59/mo · 39.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,682
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,805
• − Property taxes: −$1,780
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,295
• − Management: −$2,295
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable loss: −$4,720
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,133
• After-tax cash flow: $1,632/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Orange
• NCES district ID: 1201440
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,350
• Composite: 41.47/100
• National rank: #3461
• State rank: #43 of 73 in FL

Livability — Union Park

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #153
• US rank: #2308

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A- Cost of living A Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Union Park, FL
• County: Orange County · 1,471,359 people
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 63,698
• Household income: $81,651
• Rent vs Own: 35.4% rent · 64.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1458.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,618,226 people
• By 2030: 1,787,404 · +10.5%
• By 2040: 2,125,621 · +31.4%
• By 2050: 2,454,016 · +51.6%
• By 2075: 3,173,711 · +96.1%
• By 2100: 3,607,781 · +122.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 47% White 32% Two or more races 23% Black 11% Asian 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 25% Cuban 6% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 56% English-only · Spanish 35% Other Indo-European 3% Vietnamese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: D (+13.6) · D 56.1% · R 42.5% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.0pp toward R · 2008: 18.6pp · 2024: 13.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.6 2020: D+23.1 2016: D+24.6 2012: D+18.2 2008: D+18.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -171.52%
• Current HPI: 315.8496
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.77%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+883.6% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-05 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-12 Listed $300,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-18 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-16 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-16 Price Changed $325,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-14 Listed $279,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-09-06 Sold (Public Records) $229,000 Public Records
• 2007-08-21 Sold (MLS) $229,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-04-16 Listed $236,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $156,000 Public Records
• 1996-08-19 Sold (Public Records) $86,900 Public Records
• 1973-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $30,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,780 · +9.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.