5158 Nipher Rd

Avoca, NY 14810

$40,000B-

1 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,152 sqft · Built 1977 · SingleFamily · Pending · 1 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,197/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$210
• Tax + insurance: −$176
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$251
• Net cashflow: $560/mo
• Annual: $6,716/yr
• Cap rate: 23.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 59.97%
• DSCR: 3.67
• 1% rule: 2.99%
• Cash to close: $11,200

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $40k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $560 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $277 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#735 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: employment D, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Bath Central School District (town): math 38% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #522 of 590 in NY (top 88%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.8% of price.
• Market conditions: 66 active listings in the ZIP; 196 units permitted in Steuben County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Steuben County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.