5158 Nipher Rd · Avoca, NY 14810

$40,000

1 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,152 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1977 1.06 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

You can walk through a sliding glass door from the carport into the lower/basement level, where you enter a den space. There is a large bedroom with a walk-in closet. The half bath is accessible from the bedroom on one side and the laundry room on the back side. From the den, you climb a spiral metal staircase to a large open living/dining area. The kitchen is open to the dining area, separated by an island. Beyond the kitchen is the main floor full bathroom. There is a second bedroom/office space with a door to the attached storage/shed area. There are sliders in the living area that lead out onto a deck that wraps around 3 sides of the home. From the deck, one can watch the sun rise and e

Key facts

• Deck wraps around
• Sliding glass door
• 1.06 acre lot

Tags

• SLIDING GLASS DOOR
• SPIRAL METAL STAIRCASE
• OPEN LIVING DINING AREA
• DECK WRAPS AROUND

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 1.06 acres (rectangular, agricultural); Below-grade finished area present

Exterior

• Parking: 4-car garage (detached) with electricity and workshop space; Carport
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Electric service with circuit breakers; Cable available; High-speed internet available
• Home design: Single-story home; Resale property
• Construction: Block foundation; Constructed with block, frame, concrete and vinyl siding; PEX plumbing; Partially finished basement
• Exterior features: Deck; Fence (partial); Dirt driveway; Barn(s), outbuilding, and shed(s) / additional storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in range; Built-in oven; Electric cooktop; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: One main-level bedroom
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Vinyl; Varies
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One half bathroom; One main-level bathroom; Primary bedroom with private bath
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating; Baseboard heating; Window cooling units
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Sliding doors / sliding glass door(s); Den; Eat-in kitchen; Separate/formal living room; Living/dining room; Home office; Storage; Workshop
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry in basement; Electric water heater; Water softener (owned)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $560 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#735 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: employment D, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Bath Central School District (town): math 38% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #522 of 590 in NY (top 88%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 66 active listings in the ZIP; 196 units permitted in Steuben County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $277 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Steuben County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.8% of price.

Recommended offer $40,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.99% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 59.97%
• DSCR: 3.67
• GRM: 2.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 58.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.61×
• Total profit: $29,250
• Equity at exit: $5,964

10-year hold

• IRR: 63.6%
• Equity multiple: 7.40×
• Total profit: $71,718
• Equity at exit: $3,458

Cash invested: $11,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14810

• Home prices YoY: -18.8%
• Active inventory: 66
• Price-to-rent: 2.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,197 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$210
• Tax from tax record: −$159 /mo · $1,910/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$251
• Net cashflow: $560

Break-even live

Break-even rent $488

Max offer price $40,000

Occupancy floor 48%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $696	-5% $683	+0% $560	+5% $548	+10% $537
Rent	-10% $465	-5% $512	+0% $560	+5% $607	+10% $654
Rate	-1.0pp $580	-0.5pp $570	base $560	+0.5pp $549	+1.0pp $539

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,000
• Closing costs: $1,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-07
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-06
   listed $40,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,910 · $159/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,910 · $159/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 6 d/yr ≥92°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,358
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,241
• − Property taxes: −$1,910
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,149
• − Management: −$1,149
• − Depreciation: −$1,164
• Taxable income: $6,547
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,571
• After-tax cash flow: $5,145/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bath Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3604050
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▲ 8.00%
• Median HH income: $38,973
• Composite: 34.25/100
• National rank: #5254
• State rank: #522 of 590 in NY

Livability — Avoca

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #735
• US rank: #14018

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 11,412

Population outlook (Steuben County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 93,062 people
• By 2030: 89,793 · -3.5%
• By 2040: 82,353 · -11.5%
• By 2050: 74,286 · -20.2%
• By 2075: 55,589 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 37,587 · -59.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Black 3% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Steuben

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.8) · D 34.1% · R 65.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.0pp toward R · 2008: -16.8pp · 2024: -31.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.8 2020: R+29.6 2016: R+36.2 2012: R+16.4 2008: R+16.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -44.58%
• Current HPI: 193.0727
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2026-05-06 Listed $40,000 UNYREIS

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,910 · -0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.