2609 W Southern Ave #157

Tempe, AZ 85282

$117,500D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Built 2025 · Manufactured · Active · 449 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,992/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$616
• Tax + insurance: −$196
• HOA: −$875
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$418
• Net cashflow: $-114/mo
• Annual: $-1,363/yr
• Cap rate: 5.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.14%
• DSCR: 0.82
• 1% rule: 1.70%
• Cash to close: $32,900

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $118k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-114 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $101k (14.0% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $118k).
• It's been on market 449 days — a 12% lower offer ($103k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $101k (14.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $812 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#10 in AZ, #2,527 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, cost of living C-, health & safety D.
• Tempe School District (4258) (urban): math 17% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #170 of 249 in AZ (top 68%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 44% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 174 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.4% in Tempe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 449 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.