2609 W Southern Ave #157 · Tempe, AZ 85282

$117,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Manufactured · 449 Days on market

Built 2025 $875/mo HOA · 44% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Large deck
• Covered parking
• Brand new kitchen

Tags

• RENOVATED MANUFACTURED HOME
• UPGRADED LANDSCAPE
• LARGE DECK
• COVERED PARKING
• BRAND NEW KITCHEN
• HIGHLY SOUGHT AFTER FLOORPLAN

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $117,500
• HOA & community: Association fee: $875

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Home design: Spec inventory, Plan name: Palm 24x48
• Exterior features: Located at 2609 W Southern Ave #157, Tempe AZ 85282

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Living area of 1,152

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $118k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-114 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $101k (14.0% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $118k).
• Recommended offer: $101k (14.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.4% in Tempe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#10 in AZ, #2,527 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, cost of living C-, health & safety D.
• Tempe School District (4258) (urban): math 17% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #170 of 249 in AZ (top 68%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 174 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $812 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 449 days — a 12% lower offer ($103k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 44% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $101,059 (14.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 449 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.70% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.14%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $59,904
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2609 W Southern Ave #108	0.00mi	3/1.5	1,120 (-3%)	2mo	$55,000	$49	92
2609 W Southern Ave #441	0.05mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,152 (0%)	3mo	$60,000	$52	90
2609 W Southern Ave #117	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,152 (0%)	9mo	$125,000	$109	88
2609 W Southern Ave #379	0.05mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,180 (+2%)	1mo	$135,000	$114	88
2401 W Southern Ave #204	0.23mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,120 (-3%)	9mo	$69,900	$62	72
2609 W Southern Ave #335	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (+8%)	12mo	$76,000	$61	71
2401 W Southern Ave #481	0.29mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (+8%)	2mo	$45,000	$36	66
2609 W Southern Ave #38	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	980 (-15%)	10mo	$25,000	$26	62
2401 W Southern Ave #106	0.28mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,020 (-12%)	3mo	$74,000	$73	60
2609 W Southern Ave #333	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	980 (-15%)	12mo	$35,000	$36	60
2609 W Southern Ave #227	0.05mi	2/1.5 (-1)	980 (-15%)	7mo	$27,100	$28	60
2401 W Southern Ave #110	0.18mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,005 (-13%)	9mo	$14,500	$14	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -30.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.04×
• Total profit: $-31,545
• Equity at exit: $17,520

10-year hold

• IRR: -91.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.73×
• Total profit: $-57,038
• Equity at exit: $10,159

Cash invested: $32,900 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85282

• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 174
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,992 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$616
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$147 /mo · $1,762/yr
• Insurance: −$49
• HOA: −$875
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$418
• Net cashflow: $-114

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,135

Max offer price $101,059

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,375
• Closing costs: $3,525
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2381 W Garden Dr #2357 Tempe, AZ	3.0	2.0	1442	$2,199	$1.52	17d	1	0.47mi
2381 W Garden Dr #2365 Tempe, AZ	3.0	2.0	1442	$2,300	$1.60	1d	1	0.47mi
4365 S Potter Dr Tempe, AZ	2.0	2.0	1218	$1,985	$1.63	1d	1	0.47mi
4389 S Potter Dr Tempe, AZ	3.0	2.5	1396	$2,150	$1.54	1d	1	0.49mi
2348 W Garden Dr Tempe, AZ	3.0	2.0	1398	$1,100	$0.79	16d	1	0.49mi
2349 W Garden Dr Tempe, AZ	3.0	2.0	1396	$2,030	$1.45	1d	1	0.50mi
2150 W Alameda Dr Tempe, AZ	2.0	2.5	1155	$1,899	$1.64	21d	1	0.56mi
1812 W Village Way Tempe, AZ	3.0	1.5	1148	$2,075	$1.81	1d	1	0.57mi
1818 W Village Way Tempe, AZ	3.0	2.5	1148	$2,150	$1.87	10d	1	0.57mi
1688 W Village Way Tempe, AZ	2.0	2.0	894	$1,650	$1.85	1d	1	0.64mi
2401 W Fremont Dr Tempe, AZ	2.0	2.0	1074	$1,700	$1.58	1d	1	0.67mi
6627 S 44th St Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.0	1151	$1,100	$0.96	3d	1	0.72mi
2231 W Fremont Dr Tempe, AZ	3.0	2.0	1204	$1,950	$1.62	14d	1	0.72mi
2231 W Fremont Dr Tempe, AZ	3.0	2.0	1204	$1,900	$1.58	10d	1	0.72mi
2231 W Fremont Dr Tempe, AZ	3.0	2.0	1204	$1,950	$1.62	15d	1	0.72mi
4328 E Saint Catherine Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1272	$2,000	$1.57	1d	1	0.72mi
4312 E Burgess Ln Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1025	$1,675	$1.63	1d	1	0.78mi
1600 E La Jolla Dr Tempe, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	881	$2,335	$2.65	1d	26	0.78mi
4901 S Calle Los Cerros Dr Tempe, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	868	$1,995	$2.30	1d	3	0.79mi
1600 W La Jolla Dr Tempe, AZ	2.0	2.0	948	$1,809	$1.91	2d	1	0.82mi
1600 W La Jolla Dr Tempe, AZ	2.0	2.0	948	$1,776	$1.87	1d	1	0.82mi
1440 W La Jolla Dr Tempe, AZ	2.0	1.5	1075	$1,950	$1.81	1d	1	0.83mi
4163 E Pecan Rd Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1182	$1,999	$1.69	14d	1	0.91mi
7409 S 46th St Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1120	$1,975	$1.76	14d	1	0.91mi
4520 E Baseline Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	757	$1,821	$2.41	1d	24	0.92mi
7027 S 43rd Way Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1203	$2,200	$1.83	23d	1	0.94mi
4424 E Baseline Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	930	$1,969	$2.12	1d	54	0.99mi
2520 S Plaza Dr Tempe, AZ	3.0	1.0–2.0	950	$2,183	$2.30	10d	19	1.07mi
2520 S Plaza Dr Tempe, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	940	$1,928	$2.05	1d	15	1.07mi
2155 S 55th St Tempe, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1067	$2,726	$2.55	1d	13	1.09mi
4005 E La Salle St Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1149	$1,859	$1.62	19d	1	1.15mi
6250 S 40th St Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1041	$2,262	$2.17	1d	16	1.20mi
4441 E Wood St Phoenix, AZ	3.0	1.5	1008	$1,295	$1.28	12d	1	1.25mi
2100 S Priest Dr Unit 1386547P Tempe, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	973	$2,918	$3.00	3d	2	1.26mi
4410 E Pueblo Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	792	$1,400	$1.77	1d	1	1.26mi
4514 E Riverside St Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	1008	$995	$0.99	1d	1	1.26mi
4615 E Jones Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	1.0	1008	$1,400	$1.39	1d	1	1.28mi
4420 E Wood St Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.5	1016	$1,300	$1.28	1d	1	1.30mi
4839 S Darrow Dr Tempe, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	712	$1,695	$2.38	1d	12	1.30mi
4014 S 44th Way Phoenix, AZ	3.0	1.5	1100	$1,595	$1.45	1d	1	1.36mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $875 · $10,500/yr

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $117,500 Active 449 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $117,500 Active 448 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $117,500 Active 447 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $117,500 Active 446 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $117,500 Active 444 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $117,500 Active 443 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $117,500 Active 440 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $117,500 Active 439 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $117,500 Active 438 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $117,500 Active 435 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $117,500 Active 434 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $117,500 Active 433 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $117,500 Active 432 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $117,500 Active 431 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥111°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,900
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,582
• − Property taxes: −$1,762
• − Insurance: −$588
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,912
• − Management: −$1,912
• − HOA: −$10,500
• − Depreciation: −$3,418
• Taxable loss: −$2,774
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$666
• After-tax cash flow: $-698/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tempe School District (4258)
• NCES district ID: 0408310
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $43,112
• Composite: 19.7/100
• National rank: #8721
• State rank: #170 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Tempe

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #10
• US rank: #2527

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living C- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tempe, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 193,337
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 53,624
• Household income: $79,036
• Rent vs Own: 53.0% rent · 47.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2973.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 13% Black 9% Asian 6% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 12% Chinese 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -343.77%
• Current HPI: 353.6986
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.61%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B