203 Vernon St Unit A

Thrall, TX 76578

$153,000B-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,050 sqft · Built 2021 · SingleFamily · Active · 10 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,900/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$802
• Tax + insurance: −$485
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$399
• Net cashflow: $214/mo
• Annual: $2,565/yr
• Cap rate: 7.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.99%
• DSCR: 1.27
• 1% rule: 1.24%
• Cash to close: $42,840

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $153k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $214 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $153k).
• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (2.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#492 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Thrall ISD (rural): math 57% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #89 of 826 in TX (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Thrall El (math 47% / reading 57%, grade C-, #742 of 4,322 statewide, top 19%, 322 students, 46% FRL); Thrall Middle (math 63% / reading 57%, grade B, #158 of 1,662 statewide, top 10%, 243 students, 32% FRL); Thrall H S (math 52% / reading 57%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 254 students, 29% FRL) — zoned schools at 36% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price.
• Market conditions: 58 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 7,543 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (1,425 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Williamson County population projected at +69% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (2.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.