1 Carkeek Ln

Big Sky, MT 59720

$589,000F

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,802 sqft · Built 1949 · SingleFamily · Active · 6 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,333/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,089
• Tax + insurance: −$474
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$700
• Net cashflow: $-930/mo
• Annual: $-11,158/yr
• Cap rate: 4.40%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.77%
• DSCR: 0.70
• 1% rule: 0.57%
• Cash to close: $164,920

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $589k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-930 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $425k (27.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $333k (43.4% below list).
• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $333k (43.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $984 appreciation (0.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#113 in MT) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing B; Watch: schools C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Ennis K-12 Schools (rural): math 43% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #28 of 116 in MT (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: built in 1949 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 43 active listings in the ZIP; 9 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1949 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.