1 Carkeek Ln · Big Sky, MT 59720

$589,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,802 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1949 1.00 ac lot ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.7/30.0
• Appreciation +5.1/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.0/10.0
• 1% rule +0.7/10.0

Key facts

• Private bath
• Remodeled kitchen
• Madison range views

Tags

• MADISON RANGE VIEWS
• REMODELED KITCHEN
• PRIVATE BATH
• PARTIALLY FINISHED BASEMENT
• WORLD-CLASS FISHING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Metal roof
• Exterior features: Level lot; Horses allowed

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms
• Interior features: Finished basement with concrete construction; Two fireplaces; Has a view
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $589k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-930 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $425k (27.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $333k (43.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $333k (43.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#113 in MT) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing B; Watch: schools C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Ennis K-12 Schools (rural): math 43% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #28 of 116 in MT (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 43 active listings in the ZIP; 9 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $984 appreciation (0.2% local appreciation)).
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1949 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $333,266 (43.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1949 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.57% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.40%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.77%
• DSCR: 0.70
• GRM: 14.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.17% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-72,071
• Equity at exit: $175,965

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-57,527
• Equity at exit: $215,500

Cash invested: $164,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Montana: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; no rent control; preempted; rural-skewed market.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 59720

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 43
• Price-to-rent: 14.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,333 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,089
• Tax from tax record: −$228 /mo · $2,741/yr
• Insurance: −$245
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$700
• Net cashflow: $-930

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,510

Max offer price $424,744

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $147,250
• Closing costs: $17,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $589,000 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $589,000 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $589,000 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $589,000 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $589,000 Active 2 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   listing id $589,000 Active 1 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   listed $589,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MT · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,741 · $228/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,948 · $412/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,207/yr (+$184/mo · 80.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 11 d/yr ≥83°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,992
• − Mortgage interest: −$32,993
• − Property taxes: −$2,741
• − Insurance: −$2,945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,199
• − Management: −$3,199
• − Depreciation: −$17,135
• Taxable loss: −$22,221
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,333
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,825/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ennis K-12 Schools
• NCES district ID: 3009930
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $47,407
• Composite: 42.07/100
• National rank: #3323
• State rank: #28 of 116 in MT

Livability — Big Sky

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #113
• US rank: #11337

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D- Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety C- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 1,867
• Population (ZIP): 315

Population outlook (Madison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 8,365 people
• By 2030: 8,515 · +1.8%
• By 2040: 8,539 · +2.1%
• By 2050: 8,467 · +1.2%
• By 2075: 8,745 · +4.5%
• By 2100: 9,210 · +10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Native American 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 10% Serbian 7% Romanian 6%
• Foreign-born: 2% · China
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Madison

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.3) · D 26.1% · R 71.4% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.2pp toward R · 2008: -37.1pp · 2024: -45.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.3 2020: R+39.6 2016: R+44.7 2012: R+40.6 2008: R+37.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.17%
• Current HPI: 216.5768
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.41%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology / Analytics	1	$2B

Price history

-9.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $589,000 MRMLS
• 2023-09-22 Price Changed $589,000 BSCMLS
• 2023-06-08 Price Changed $599,000 BSCMLS
• 2023-03-10 Price Changed $629,000 BSCMLS
• 2022-09-23 Listed $649,000 BSCMLS

Property tax history

-3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,741 · -22.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.