206 Ashton Dr

Yorktown, VA 23690

$350,000D

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,826 sqft · Built 2008 · Townhouse · Under Contract · 35 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,864/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax + insurance: −$355
• HOA: −$190
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$601
• Net cashflow: $-118/mo
• Annual: $-1,418/yr
• Cap rate: 5.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.45%
• DSCR: 0.94
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $98,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $350k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-118 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $329k (6.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $286k (18.2% below list).
• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($340k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $286k (18.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $1k appreciation (0.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#189 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing B; Watch: amenities F, commute D-, cost of living F.
• York County Public School District (suburban): math 77% / reading 87% proficiency, ranked #3 of 131 in VA (top 2%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Yorktown Elementary (math 64% / reading 74%, grade A-, #351 of 1,108 statewide, top 32%, 613 students, 60% FRL); Yorktown Middle (math 66% / reading 83%, grade A, #50 of 342 statewide, top 16%, 644 students, 45% FRL); York High (math 69% / reading 92%, grade A, #57 of 319 statewide, top 18%, 1,050 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools average 48% FRL vs 15% district-wide (33 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 44 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 187 units permitted in York County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• York County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $240k; 46% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.6% in Yorktown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.