206 Ashton Dr · Yorktown, VA 23690

$350,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,826 sqft · Townhouse public records · 35 Days on market

Built 2008 3,484 sqft lot $192/sqft · 13% above area Est $307k · 14% over $190/mo HOA · 7% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.5/30.0
• Schools +7.2/10.0
• Appreciation +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +1.2/15.0

Listing remarks

Beautifully updated end-unit townhome in an established Yorktown community offering carefree living with 3 bedrooms and 2.5 baths. Freshly painted in neutral tones with new carpet upstairs and new LVP flooring throughout the main living areas. Features include tray ceilings, spacious rooms, 2nd floor laundry, and a large primary suite with soaking tub and separate shower. The kitchen shines with high-end appliances, while the privacy-fenced backyard with patio is perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Attached one-car garage. Community amenities include pool, clubhouse, fitness center, trash service, and ground maintenance. Conveniently located near historic Yorktown Beach, Coast Guard Stati

Key facts

• Community amenities
• End-unit townhome
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• END-UNIT TOWNHOME
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• PRIVACY-FENCED BACKYARD
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: HOA with monthly fee of $190; Community clubhouse; Exercise room; Ground maintenance; Pool; Trash pickup

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 1-car garage; Driveway parking spaces
• Utilities: City/County water; City/County sewer; Gas water heater; Electric service (standard)
• Home design: Attached property; Townhouse, transitional style; End unit; Two stories; Slab foundation
• Construction: Asphalt shingle roof
• Exterior features: Vinyl siding; Back privacy wood fence; Fenced yard

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Gas range; Refrigerator; Breakfast area
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom with ensuite; Master bedroom on 2nd floor; Additional bedroom(s) on 2nd floor
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fan; Garage door opener; Bar; Gas fireplace; Double primary sink; Walk-in closet; Window treatments
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup; Utility room on 2nd floor

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $350k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-118 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $329k (6.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $286k (18.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $286k (18.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.6% in Yorktown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#189 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing B; Watch: amenities F, commute D-, cost of living F.
• York County Public School District (suburban): math 77% / reading 87% proficiency, ranked #3 of 131 in VA (top 2%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Yorktown Elementary (math 64% / reading 74%, grade A-, #351 of 1,108 statewide, top 32%, 613 students, 60% FRL); Yorktown Middle (math 66% / reading 83%, grade A, #50 of 342 statewide, top 16%, 644 students, 45% FRL); York High (math 69% / reading 92%, grade A, #57 of 319 statewide, top 18%, 1,050 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools average 48% FRL vs 15% district-wide (33 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 44 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 187 units permitted in York County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $1k appreciation (0.4% local appreciation)).
• York County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($340k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $240k; 46% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $286,401 (18.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.45%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $306,911
• List price: $350,000
• Delta: 14.04%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
216 Ashton Dr	0.02mi	3/2.5	1,796 (-2%)	1mo	$337,000	$188	95
411 Alexia Ln	0.13mi	3/2.5	1,835 (+0%)	9mo	$350,500	$191	86
503 Alexia Ln	0.16mi	3/2.5	1,781 (-2%)	4mo	$335,000	$188	86
204 Ashton Dr	0.00mi	3/2.5	1,790 (-2%)	14mo	$320,000	$179	85
419 Alexia Ln	0.15mi	3/2.5	1,797 (-2%)	16mo	$335,000	$186	77
107 Daniels Dr	0.20mi	3/2.5	1,959 (+7%)	9mo	$317,000	$162	72
212 Daniels Dr	0.10mi	3/2.5	2,090 (+14%)	10mo	$341,000	$163	62
119 Daniels Dr	0.18mi	3/2.5	2,090 (+14%)	9mo	$345,000	$165	60
200 Daniels Dr	0.14mi	3/2.5	2,090 (+14%)	24mo	$341,050	$163	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.39% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-11,221
• Equity at exit: $108,572

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.35×
• Total profit: $34,031
• Equity at exit: $136,186

Cash invested: $98,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23690

• Home prices YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 44
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,864 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax from tax record: −$209 /mo · $2,514/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$190
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$601
• Net cashflow: $-118

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,014

Max offer price $329,120

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $80	-5% $-19	+0% $-118	+5% $-217	+10% $-316
Rent	-10% $-344	-5% $-231	+0% $-118	+5% $-5	+10% $108
Rate	-1.0pp $58	-0.5pp $-29	base $-118	+0.5pp $-209	+1.0pp $-301

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,500
• Closing costs: $10,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
405 Baptist Rd Yorktown, VA	3.0	2.0	1470	$2,250	$1.53	45d	1	1.00mi
101 Pulaski St Yorktown, VA	4.0	2.0	1900	$2,450	$1.29	16d	1	1.20mi
103 Chischiak Watch Yorktown, VA	3.0	3.0	2382	$3,600	$1.51	45d	1	1.37mi
103 Chischiak Watch Yorktown, VA	3.0	3.0	2384	$3,600	$1.51	25d	1	1.37mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $190 · $2,280/yr
• Likely covers: trashpoolgym

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $350,000 Under Contract 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $350,000 Active Under Contract 33 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $350,000 Active Under Contract 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $350,000 Active Under Contract 31 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $350,000 Active Under Contract 27 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $350,000 Active Under Contract 26 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   status $350,000 Active Under Contract 25 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $350,000 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $350,000 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-05-12
    historical Active Under Contract 770-char remark
11. 2026-05-07
    listed $350,000 Active 770-char remark
12. 2020-07-31
    soldstatus $240,000
13. 2020-07-08
    status Under Contract
14. 2020-07-02
    historical Active Under Contract
15. 2020-06-17
    listed $240,000 Active
16. 2008-07-08
    soldstatus $292,420

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,514 · $209/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,870 · $239/mo
• Expected delta: +$356/yr (+$30/mo · 14.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,368
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,605
• − Property taxes: −$2,514
• − Insurance: −$1,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,749
• − Management: −$2,749
• − HOA: −$2,280
• − Depreciation: −$10,182
• Taxable loss: −$7,462
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,791
• After-tax cash flow: $372/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: York County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5104150
• Math proficiency: 77% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 87% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $81,985
• Composite: 72.34/100
• National rank: #202
• State rank: #3 of 131 in VA

Livability — Yorktown

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #189
• US rank: #5884

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D- Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 42,477
• Population (ZIP): 4,948

Population outlook (York County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 75,000 people
• By 2030: 78,122 · +4.2%
• By 2040: 83,329 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 87,381 · +16.5%
• By 2075: 99,308 · +32.4%
• By 2100: 101,751 · +35.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Black 22% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 19%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 12%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · York

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.1) · D 46.3% · R 52.4% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.9pp toward D · 2008: -18.1pp · 2024: -6.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.1 2020: R+6.6 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+20.7 2008: R+18.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.39%
• Current HPI: 244.1455
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+19.7% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Pending — REINMLS
• 2026-06-01 Contingent — REINMLS
• 2026-05-21 Relisted — REINMLS
• 2026-05-12 Contingent — REINMLS
• 2026-05-07 Listed $350,000 REINMLS
• 2020-07-31 Sold (Public Records) $240,000 Public Records
• 2020-07-08 Pending — REINMLS
• 2020-07-02 Contingent — REINMLS
• 2020-06-17 Listed $240,000 REINMLS
• 2008-07-08 Sold (Public Records) $292,420 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,514 · +13.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.