1846 Hollister St #4

Houston, TX 77080

$140,000C

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,554 sqft · Built 1975 · Townhouse · Pending · 15 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,898/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax + insurance: −$391
• HOA: −$142
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$399
• Net cashflow: $232/mo
• Annual: $2,788/yr
• Cap rate: 8.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.11%
• DSCR: 1.32
• 1% rule: 1.36%
• Cash to close: $39,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $140k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $232 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($138k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $138k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Spring Branch ISD (urban): math 47% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #215 of 826 in TX (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Cedar Brook El (math 39% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,709 of 4,322 statewide, top 40%, 657 students, 73% FRL); Spring Woods Middle (math 17% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,378 of 1,662 statewide, top 83%, 814 students, 92% FRL); Northbrook H S (math 36% / reading 30%, grade F, #1,023 of 1,632 statewide, top 63%, 2,610 students, 85% FRL) — zoned schools average 83% FRL vs 54% district-wide (29 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 31% at this address vs 46% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Spring Branch ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 344 active listings in the ZIP; 32 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.