1200 E Central Ave #30

Sutherlin, OR 97479

$124,900C+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,782 sqft · Built 1989 · Manufactured · Active · 74 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,855/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$655
• Tax + insurance: −$169
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$390
• Net cashflow: $642/mo
• Annual: $7,701/yr
• Cap rate: 13.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.30%
• DSCR: 2.08
• 1% rule: 1.49%
• Cash to close: $34,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $642 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• It's been on market 74 days — a 6% lower offer ($117k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $117k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#135 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Sutherlin SD 130 (town): math 19% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #47 of 58 in OR (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 109 active listings in the ZIP; 190 units permitted in Douglas County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Douglas County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 13.1% vs local median 3.5% in Sutherlin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 74 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.