19111 Vista Bay Dr #204

Indian Shores, FL 33785

$389,000D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Built 1983 · Condo · Active · 78 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,858/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,040
• Tax + insurance: −$333
• HOA: −$989
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$810
• Net cashflow: $-314/mo
• Annual: $-3,773/yr
• Cap rate: 5.32%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.46%
• DSCR: 0.85
• 1% rule: 0.99%
• Cash to close: $108,920

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $389k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-314 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $333k (14.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $386k (0.8% below list).
• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($366k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $333k (14.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (1.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#234 in FL, #3,685 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F.
• Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Bauder Elementary School (math 80% / reading 73%, grade A, #185 of 2,144 statewide, top 9%, 644 students, 28% FRL); Seminole Middle School (math 55% / reading 53%, grade B-, #196 of 571 statewide, top 36%, 824 students, 49% FRL); Richard O Jacobson Technical High School At Seminole (math 52% / reading 53%, grade C-, #154 of 667 statewide, top 24%, 578 students, 45% FRL).
• Watch-outs: HOA is 26% of rent.
• Market conditions: 246 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Current owner paid $105k; list at $389k implies a 270% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 1.1% in Indian Shores — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $3,858/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($101k/yr) (locally 130% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.