19111 Vista Bay Dr #204 · Indian Shores, FL 33785

$389,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Condo public records · 78 Days on market

Built 1983 $989/mo HOA · 26% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Lowest priced 2/2 Waterfront Condo along our Intracoastal. Just 300 steps to the Beach. . Large 2/2 with 1260 Sq Ft. . Welcome to Vista Bay Condominiums on the intracoastal waterway in Indian Shores. The association just completed a complex makeover including a million dollar brand new, 530-foot waterfront promenade with all new docks, walkway plus a fishing and day dock. There are also waterfront tennis and pickle ball courts, grilling stations and a heated pool, perfect for enjoying Florida's aquatic lifestyle. Indulge in spotting dolphins, manatees, yearly boat parades and coastal family fun from the waterfront amenities. All assessments are paid. The second-floor, two-bedroom, two-bath,

Key facts

• Fishing and day dock
• New docks
• Direct water views

Tags

• NEW DOCKS
• FISHING AND DAY DOCK
• WATERFRONT TENNIS COURTS
• HEATED POOL
• BEACH ACCESS
• DIRECT WATER VIEWS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Pets allowed with limits (max weight ~20 lbs); Community features include sidewalks, association-owned recreation, buyer approval required, golf carts allowed
• Financial info: Total annual association fees: $11,868; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Vista Bay Condo Association; Monthly condo fee: $989; Association amenities: pool, storage, tennis courts, pickleball courts; Association fees cover cable TV, internet, pool, sewer, trash, water, management, maintenance of structures, escrow reserves

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 space); Garage; Ground-level parking; Guest parking; Parking pad; Tandem parking; Basement parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable connected; Internet available; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Residential condominium; One level; 6-story building; West-facing
• Construction: Block construction; Built-up roof; Block and slab foundation; Vista Bay building
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Balcony; Outdoor lighting; Outdoor grill; Outdoor shower; Private mailbox; Sliding doors; Tennis court(s); Heated in-ground pool (gunite); Heated in-ground spa

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Built-in features; Eat-in kitchen; Living room/dining room combo; Open floorplan; Split bedroom layout; Elevator in building
• Laundry & utility: Laundry closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $389k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-314 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $333k (14.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $386k (0.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $333k (14.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 1.1% in Indian Shores — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#234 in FL, #3,685 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F.
• Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Bauder Elementary School (math 80% / reading 73%, grade A, #185 of 2,144 statewide, top 9%, 644 students, 28% FRL); Seminole Middle School (math 55% / reading 53%, grade B-, #196 of 571 statewide, top 36%, 824 students, 49% FRL); Richard O Jacobson Technical High School At Seminole (math 52% / reading 53%, grade C-, #154 of 667 statewide, top 24%, 578 students, 45% FRL).
• Market conditions: 246 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,858/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($101k/yr) (locally 130% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (1.1% local appreciation)).
• Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($366k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $105k; list at $389k implies a 270% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 26% of rent.

Recommended offer $333,461 (14.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.32%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.46%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.11% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-10,172
• Equity at exit: $135,038

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.39×
• Total profit: $42,931
• Equity at exit: $181,198

Cash invested: $108,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33785

• Home prices YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 246
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,858 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,040
• Tax from tax record: −$171 /mo · $2,051/yr
• Insurance: −$162
• HOA: −$989
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$810
• Net cashflow: $-314

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,256

Max offer price $333,461

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-94	-5% $-204	+0% $-314	+5% $-424	+10% $-535
Rent	-10% $-619	-5% $-467	+0% $-314	+5% $-162	+10% $-10
Rate	-1.0pp $-118	-0.5pp $-215	base $-314	+0.5pp $-415	+1.0pp $-518

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $97,250
• Closing costs: $11,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
19111 Vista Bay Dr Indian Shores, FL	2.0	2.0	1310	$4,200	$3.21	26d	3	0.03mi
19111 Vista Bay Dr Indian Shores, FL	2.0	2.0	1265	$4,550	$3.60	4d	2	0.03mi
19111 Vista Bay Dr #612 Indian Shores, FL	2.0	2.0	1265	$6,000	$4.74	4d	1	0.03mi
19451 Gulf Blvd #604 Indian Shores, FL	1.0	1.0	725	$2,000	$2.76	6d	1	0.35mi
19610 Gulf Blvd #101 Indian Shores, FL	2.0	2.0	1100	$3,000	$2.73	26d	1	0.69mi
13788 84th Ter Seminole, FL	3.0	2.0	1330	$2,850	$2.14	26d	1	0.75mi
18304 Gulf Blvd Redington Shores, FL	2.0	2.0	1025	$3,025	$2.95	0d	2	0.79mi
18304 Gulf Blvd Redington Shores, FL	2.0	2.0	1025	$3,350	$3.27	9d	1	0.79mi
13925 Mission Oaks Blvd #13714 Seminole, FL	2.0	2.0	865	$2,200	$2.54	26d	1	0.86mi
9262 140th Ln Seminole, FL	2.0	2.0	1402	$4,500	$3.21	5d	1	0.92mi
9433 Harbor Greens Way #504 Seminole, FL	2.0	2.0	1200	$2,500	$2.08	5d	1	0.94mi
13827 Mission Oaks Blvd Seminole, FL	2.0	2.0	865	$2,400	$2.77	26d	1	0.96mi
9224 Mission Oaks Blvd Seminole, FL	2.0	1.5	805	$1,800	$2.24	26d	1	0.96mi
13850 Oakwood Ln Seminole, FL	2.0	1.0	805	$1,400	$1.74	4d	1	0.96mi
13610 87th Pl Seminole, FL	3.0	2.0	1216	$2,195	$1.81	18d	1	0.97mi
13870 Oakwood Ln Seminole, FL	2.0	2.0	865	$2,600	$3.01	5d	1	0.99mi
18007 Gulf Blvd Unit A Redington Shores, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,725	$1.92	19d	1	1.06mi
18007 Gulf Blvd Unit A Redington Shores, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,725	$1.92	9d	1	1.06mi
18011 1st St E Unit 18011 Redington Shores, FL	2.0	1.0	925	$1,750	$1.89	26d	1	1.06mi
18015 2nd St E Redington Shores, FL	2.0	1.0	875	$2,800	$3.20	6d	1	1.07mi
17980 Gulf Blvd #402 Redington Shores, FL	2.0	2.0	1220	$8,500	$6.97	26d	1	1.08mi
17980 Gulf Blvd Unit 1546267P Redington Shores, FL	2.0	2.0	1399	$7,517	$5.37	21d	1	1.08mi
17960 Gulf Blvd #101 Redington Shores, FL	1.0	1.5	780	$2,700	$3.46	26d	1	1.11mi
730 182nd Ave E Redington Shores, FL	1.0	1.0	850	$2,300	$2.71	26d	1	1.16mi
19829 Gulf Blvd Indian Shores, FL	2.0	2.0	1400	$3,350	$2.39	9d	1	1.18mi
17920 Gulf Blvd #1401 Redington Shores, FL	2.0	2.0	1345	$3,495	$2.60	26d	1	1.20mi
17920 Gulf Blvd #502 Redington Shores, FL	1.0	1.5	1060	$3,500	$3.30	3d	1	1.20mi
17920 Gulf Blvd #1203 Redington Shores, FL	2.0	2.0	1330	$4,000	$3.01	26d	1	1.20mi
17920 Gulf Blvd #808 Redington Shores, FL	1.0	1.5	995	$2,300	$2.31	26d	1	1.20mi
17920 Gulf Blvd #1205 Redington Shores, FL	2.0	2.0	1330	$6,000	$4.51	16d	1	1.20mi
17920 Gulf Blvd #205 Redington Shores, FL	2.0	2.0	1330	$3,300	$2.48	21d	1	1.20mi
17900 Gulf Blvd Unit 1545821P Redington Shores, FL	2.0	2.0	1162	$3,873	$3.33	18d	1	1.21mi
17900 Gulf Blvd Unit 9C Redington Shores, FL	2.0	2.0	1165	$5,500	$4.72	26d	1	1.23mi
17900 Gulf Blvd Unit 1B Redington Shores, FL	2.0	2.0	1165	$3,500	$3.00	26d	1	1.23mi
17900 Gulf Blvd Unit 11C Redington Shores, FL	2.0	2.0	1165	$4,500	$3.86	6d	1	1.23mi
17900 Gulf Blvd Unit 2E Redington Shores, FL	2.0	2.0	1165	$4,000	$3.43	22d	1	1.23mi
17900 Gulf Blvd Unit 12C Redington Shores, FL	2.0	2.0	1165	$3,600	$3.09	22d	1	1.23mi
17900 Gulf Blvd Redington Shores, FL	2.0	2.0	1165	$4,000	$3.43	5d	1	1.24mi
10215 Regal Dr #4 Largo, FL	2.0	2.0	1105	$2,300	$2.08	6d	1	1.41mi
10216 Regal Dr #201 Largo, FL	2.0	2.0	1100	$2,000	$1.82	16d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $989 · $11,868/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $389,000 Active 78 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $389,000 Active 75 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $389,000 Active 74 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $389,000 Active 73 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $389,000 Active 72 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $389,000 Active 70 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $389,000 Active 66 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $389,000 Active 65 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $389,000 Active 64 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $389,000 Active 61 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $389,000 Active 60 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $389,000 Active 58 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $389,000 Active 57 DOM
14. 2026-05-07
    price $389,000
15. 2026-04-21
    price $394,999
16. 2026-04-05
    listed $399,000 Active
17. 1996-06-04
    soldstatus $105,000
18. 1986-10-06
    soldstatus $75,000
19. 1986-10-06
    soldstatus $155,000
20. 1983-10-01
    soldstatus $108,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,051 · $171/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,229 · $269/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,177/yr (+$98/mo · 57.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $46,293
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,790
• − Property taxes: −$2,051
• − Insurance: −$1,945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,703
• − Management: −$3,703
• − HOA: −$11,868
• − Depreciation: −$11,316
• Taxable loss: −$10,085
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,420
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,352/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pinellas
• NCES district ID: 1201560
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $46,270
• Composite: 43.27/100
• National rank: #3046
• State rank: #31 of 73 in FL

Livability — Indian Shores

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #234
• US rank: #3685

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B- Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Indian Shores, FL
• County: Pinellas County · 939,478 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 4,907
• Household income: $101,356
• Rent vs Own: 21.3% rent · 78.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 130.0

Population outlook (Pinellas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,027,532 people
• By 2030: 1,063,586 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 1,125,020 · +9.5%
• By 2050: 1,168,637 · +13.7%
• By 2075: 1,265,188 · +23.1%
• By 2100: 1,260,357 · +22.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 4% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinellas

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.2) · D 46.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.5pp toward R · 2008: 8.3pp · 2024: -5.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.2 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+5.6 2008: D+8.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.11%
• Current HPI: 384.4452
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+258.5% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $389,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $394,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-05 Listed $399,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1996-06-04 Sold (Public Records) $105,000 Public Records
• 1986-10-06 Sold (Public Records) $155,000 Public Records
• 1986-10-06 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records
• 1983-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $108,500 Public Records

Property tax history

-2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,051 · +5.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.