7220 Main Rd

East Marion, NY 11939

$1,400,000C+

3 bd · 4.5 ba · 2,000 sqft · Built 1870 · SingleFamily · Pending · 57 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $14,922/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$7,342
• Tax + insurance: −$1,094
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,134
• Net cashflow: $3,352/mo
• Annual: $40,229/yr
• Cap rate: 9.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.26%
• DSCR: 1.46
• 1% rule: 1.07%
• Cash to close: $392,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/4.5-bath single-family listed at $1.40M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($40k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($15k rent vs $1.40M).
• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($1.36M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.36M (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $58k of equity ($10k loan paydown + $49k appreciation (3.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,051 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety A; Watch: housing C-, schools D-, amenities F.
• Oysterponds Union Free School District (rural): math 30% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #506 of 755 in NY (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 4% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: built in 1870 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 19 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $95k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $865k; list at $1.40M implies a 62% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (3.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $392k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$94k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1870 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.