7220 Main Rd · East Marion, NY 11939

$1,400,000

3 bd · 4.5 ba · 2,000 sqft · SingleFamily · 57 Days on market

Built 1870 1.14 ac lot $700/sqft · 12% above area Est $1250k · 12% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.7/30.0
• DSCR +8.6/10.0
• Appreciation +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +2.1/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to the Lavender House, a stunningly restored farmhouse ready for it's next chapter. This 3-bedroom, 4.5-bath home blends historic 1800's charm with a meticulous modern restoration, creating a warm and elegant North Fork retreat. Each bedroom features their own en-suite bathroom, thoughtfully designed for entertaining your weekend guests. A sun-filled kitchen with oak cabinetry and marble countertops overlooks the expansive 1.14-acre property, offering beautiful views and abundant natural light throughout the day. Professionally designed living spaces balance timeless character with refined updates- this home is both inviting and functional. The property offers a rare opportunity to create your own North Fork compound just two miles east of vibrant Greenport Village. Bonus feature is a charming two-story artist's barn- awaiting you to reimagine it as a guest house, pool house, or creative studio. The expansive backyard has room for a pool, patio and endless potential. This home begs for you to bring your design ideas and put on finishing touches, home is being sold as-is. East Marion is one of the North Fork’s most coveted beachside hamlets, perfectly situated near local beaches, golf, farmstands, vineyards, and six miles from the Cross Sound Ferry to New England.

Key facts

• 1.14 acre lot
• Built 1870
• Listed 57 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/4.5-bath single-family listed at $1.40M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($40k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($15k rent vs $1.40M).
• Recommended offer: $1.36M (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,051 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety A; Watch: housing C-, schools D-, amenities F.
• Oysterponds Union Free School District (rural): math 30% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #506 of 755 in NY (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 4% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 19 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $58k of equity ($10k loan paydown + $49k appreciation (3.5% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (3.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $392k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$94k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($1.36M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $95k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $865k; list at $1.40M implies a 62% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1870 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,358,000 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1870 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.26%
• DSCR: 1.46
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,249,930
• List price: $1,400,000
• Delta: 12.01%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
155 Manor Rd	0.14mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,140 (+7%)	9mo	$1,490,000	$696	61
600 Shipyard Ln	0.33mi	3/2.5	1,800 (-10%)	9mo	$1,100,000	$611	53
1117 Cedar Ln	0.19mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,200 (+10%)	9mo	$2,000,000	$909	52
500 South Ln	0.51mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,700 (-15%)	6mo	$2,046,000	$1,204	35
3900 Route 25	0.60mi	3/2.5	2,162 (+8%)	19mo	$1,090,000	$504	34
3130 Rocky Point Rd	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,764 (-12%)	22mo	$925,000	$524	20

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.47% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.06×
• Total profit: $416,758
• Equity at exit: $666,869

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.91×
• Total profit: $1,141,196
• Equity at exit: $1,057,774

Cash invested: $392,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11939

• Home prices YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 19
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $14,922 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$7,342
• Tax from tax record: −$511 /mo · $6,129/yr
• Insurance: −$583
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,134
• Net cashflow: $3,352

Break-even live

Break-even rent $10,678

Max offer price $1,400,000

Occupancy floor 73%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $350,000
• Closing costs: $42,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1110 Gillette Dr East Marion, NY	4.0	2.0	1500	$7,000	$4.67	19d	1	0.23mi
460 Bay Ave East Marion, NY	3.0	1.5	1500	$8,000	$5.33	43d	1	0.39mi
300 Marion Pl East Marion, NY	3.0	2.0	1750	$19,000	$10.86	24d	1	0.40mi
580 South Ln East Marion, NY	3.0	2.5	2000	$20,000	$10.00	19d	1	0.52mi
580 Stars Rd East Marion, NY	4.0	3.5	2700	$35,000	$12.96	43d	1	0.56mi
870 Stars Rd East Marion, NY	3.0	3.0	1500	$10,000	$6.67	43d	1	0.60mi
3045 Rocky Point Rd East Marion, NY	3.0	2.0	2025	$12,000	$5.93	43d	1	0.66mi
11003 Main Rd East Marion, NY	3.0	2.0	3000	$15,000	$5.00	43d	1	0.74mi
3600 Rocky Point Rd East Marion, NY	3.0	2.5	3000	$16,000	$5.33	43d	1	0.78mi
11930 Main Rd East Marion, NY	4.0	2.0	2200	$3,500	$1.59	43d	1	0.85mi
123 Sterling Ave #2 Greenport, NY	3.0	3.0	1528	$45,000	$29.45	43d	1	1.33mi
485 Sutton Pl Greenport, NY	4.0	2.5	2026	$20,000	$9.87	43d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-05-15
   status Pending 1297-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1297 chars)

   Welcome to the Lavender House, a stunningly restored farmhouse ready for it's next chapter. This 3-bedroom, 4.5-bath home blends historic 1800's charm with a meticulous modern restoration, creating a warm and elegant North Fork retreat. Each bedroom features their own en-suite bathroom, thoughtfully designed for entertaining your weekend guests. A sun-filled kitchen with oak cabinetry and marble countertops overlooks the expansive 1.14-acre property, offering beautiful views and abundant natural light throughout the day. Professionally designed living spaces balance timeless character with refined updates- this home is both inviting and functional. The property offers a rare opportunity to create your own North Fork compound just two miles east of vibrant Greenport Village. Bonus feature is a charming two-story artist's barn- awaiting you to reimagine it as a guest house, pool house, or creative studio. The expansive backyard has room for a pool, patio and endless potential. This home begs for you to bring your design ideas and put on finishing touches, home is being sold as-is. East Marion is one of the North Fork’s most coveted beachside hamlets, perfectly situated near local beaches, golf, farmstands, vineyards, and six miles from the Cross Sound Ferry to New England.

2. 2026-04-23
   price $1,400,000 1297-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1297 chars)

   Welcome to the Lavender House, a stunningly restored farmhouse ready for it's next chapter. This 3-bedroom, 4.5-bath home blends historic 1800's charm with a meticulous modern restoration, creating a warm and elegant North Fork retreat. Each bedroom features their own en-suite bathroom, thoughtfully designed for entertaining your weekend guests. A sun-filled kitchen with oak cabinetry and marble countertops overlooks the expansive 1.14-acre property, offering beautiful views and abundant natural light throughout the day. Professionally designed living spaces balance timeless character with refined updates- this home is both inviting and functional. The property offers a rare opportunity to create your own North Fork compound just two miles east of vibrant Greenport Village. Bonus feature is a charming two-story artist's barn- awaiting you to reimagine it as a guest house, pool house, or creative studio. The expansive backyard has room for a pool, patio and endless potential. This home begs for you to bring your design ideas and put on finishing touches, home is being sold as-is. East Marion is one of the North Fork’s most coveted beachside hamlets, perfectly situated near local beaches, golf, farmstands, vineyards, and six miles from the Cross Sound Ferry to New England.

3. 2026-03-20
   listed $1,495,000 Active 1297-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1297 chars)

   Welcome to the Lavender House, a stunningly restored farmhouse ready for it's next chapter. This 3-bedroom, 4.5-bath home blends historic 1800's charm with a meticulous modern restoration, creating a warm and elegant North Fork retreat. Each bedroom features their own en-suite bathroom, thoughtfully designed for entertaining your weekend guests. A sun-filled kitchen with oak cabinetry and marble countertops overlooks the expansive 1.14-acre property, offering beautiful views and abundant natural light throughout the day. Professionally designed living spaces balance timeless character with refined updates- this home is both inviting and functional. The property offers a rare opportunity to create your own North Fork compound just two miles east of vibrant Greenport Village. Bonus feature is a charming two-story artist's barn- awaiting you to reimagine it as a guest house, pool house, or creative studio. The expansive backyard has room for a pool, patio and endless potential. This home begs for you to bring your design ideas and put on finishing touches, home is being sold as-is. East Marion is one of the North Fork’s most coveted beachside hamlets, perfectly situated near local beaches, golf, farmstands, vineyards, and six miles from the Cross Sound Ferry to New England.

4. 2026-03-12
   historical $1,495,000 1297-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1297 chars)

   Welcome to the Lavender House, a stunningly restored farmhouse ready for it's next chapter. This 3-bedroom, 4.5-bath home blends historic 1800's charm with a meticulous modern restoration, creating a warm and elegant North Fork retreat. Each bedroom features their own en-suite bathroom, thoughtfully designed for entertaining your weekend guests. A sun-filled kitchen with oak cabinetry and marble countertops overlooks the expansive 1.14-acre property, offering beautiful views and abundant natural light throughout the day. Professionally designed living spaces balance timeless character with refined updates- this home is both inviting and functional. The property offers a rare opportunity to create your own North Fork compound just two miles east of vibrant Greenport Village. Bonus feature is a charming two-story artist's barn- awaiting you to reimagine it as a guest house, pool house, or creative studio. The expansive backyard has room for a pool, patio and endless potential. This home begs for you to bring your design ideas and put on finishing touches, home is being sold as-is. East Marion is one of the North Fork’s most coveted beachside hamlets, perfectly situated near local beaches, golf, farmstands, vineyards, and six miles from the Cross Sound Ferry to New England.

5. 2022-12-13
   soldstatus $865,000
6. 2022-10-28
   soldstatus $865,000 Closed 574-char remark

   Show marketing remark (574 chars)

   Reclaim this Historic Farmhouse! Bring it back to its grand splendor on 1.14 acres. First floor- Formal Dining Room, Living Room w/fireplace, Den, fireplace in MBR, EIK, half bath. On second floor, 3 bedrooms, Full bath.. On spacious landscaped grounds....Separate 2-story art Studio, 3 outlying buildings/sheds. 'AS IS'. Street gas and municipal water. Come and see this special part of history in East Marion. Fabulous potential and price await you. New roof, gas burner, water heater. POF and/or mortgage approval., Additional information: Separate Hotwater Heater:yes

7. 2022-09-29
   status Pending 574-char remark

   Show marketing remark (574 chars)

   Reclaim this Historic Farmhouse! Bring it back to its grand splendor on 1.14 acres. First floor- Formal Dining Room, Living Room w/fireplace, Den, fireplace in MBR, EIK, half bath. On second floor, 3 bedrooms, Full bath.. On spacious landscaped grounds....Separate 2-story art Studio, 3 outlying buildings/sheds. 'AS IS'. Street gas and municipal water. Come and see this special part of history in East Marion. Fabulous potential and price await you. New roof, gas burner, water heater. POF and/or mortgage approval., Additional information: Separate Hotwater Heater:yes

8. 2022-09-22
   status Active 574-char remark

   Show marketing remark (574 chars)

   Reclaim this Historic Farmhouse! Bring it back to its grand splendor on 1.14 acres. First floor- Formal Dining Room, Living Room w/fireplace, Den, fireplace in MBR, EIK, half bath. On second floor, 3 bedrooms, Full bath.. On spacious landscaped grounds....Separate 2-story art Studio, 3 outlying buildings/sheds. 'AS IS'. Street gas and municipal water. Come and see this special part of history in East Marion. Fabulous potential and price await you. New roof, gas burner, water heater. POF and/or mortgage approval., Additional information: Separate Hotwater Heater:yes

9. 2022-03-15
   status Pending 574-char remark

   Show marketing remark (574 chars)

   Reclaim this Historic Farmhouse! Bring it back to its grand splendor on 1.14 acres. First floor- Formal Dining Room, Living Room w/fireplace, Den, fireplace in MBR, EIK, half bath. On second floor, 3 bedrooms, Full bath.. On spacious landscaped grounds....Separate 2-story art Studio, 3 outlying buildings/sheds. 'AS IS'. Street gas and municipal water. Come and see this special part of history in East Marion. Fabulous potential and price await you. New roof, gas burner, water heater. POF and/or mortgage approval., Additional information: Separate Hotwater Heater:yes

10. 2022-02-25
    listed $825,000 Active 574-char remark

    Show marketing remark (574 chars)

    Reclaim this Historic Farmhouse! Bring it back to its grand splendor on 1.14 acres. First floor- Formal Dining Room, Living Room w/fireplace, Den, fireplace in MBR, EIK, half bath. On second floor, 3 bedrooms, Full bath.. On spacious landscaped grounds....Separate 2-story art Studio, 3 outlying buildings/sheds. 'AS IS'. Street gas and municipal water. Come and see this special part of history in East Marion. Fabulous potential and price await you. New roof, gas burner, water heater. POF and/or mortgage approval., Additional information: Separate Hotwater Heater:yes

11. 1990-05-16
    soldstatus $175,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,129 · $511/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $14,894 · $1,241/mo
• Expected delta: +$8,766/yr (+$730/mo · 143.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $179,062
• − Mortgage interest: −$78,422
• − Property taxes: −$6,129
• − Insurance: −$7,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$14,325
• − Management: −$14,325
• − Depreciation: −$40,727
• Taxable income: $18,134
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,352
• After-tax cash flow: $35,877/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Oysterponds Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3621930
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 20.00%
• Median HH income: $71,948
• Composite: 42.9/100
• National rank: #6712
• State rank: #506 of 755 in NY

Livability — East Marion

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1051
• US rank: #20822

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C- Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: East Marion, NY
• Population (ZIP): 1,741

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Scottish 1% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Other Indo-European 7% Other Asian/Pacific 3% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.47%
• Current HPI: 281.05
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+700.0% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $1,400,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-20 Listed $1,495,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-12 Coming Soon $1,495,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-12-13 Sold (Public Records) $865,000 Public Records
• 2022-10-28 Sold (MLS) $865,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-09-29 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-09-22 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-03-15 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-02-25 Listed $825,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1990-05-16 Sold (Public Records) $175,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,129 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.