6180 Via Real #59

Carpinteria, CA 93013

$475,000B-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,510 sqft · Built 1973 · Manufactured · Active · 45 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,779/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,491
• Tax + insurance: −$792
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,214
• Net cashflow: $1,283/mo
• Annual: $15,397/yr
• Cap rate: 9.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.58%
• DSCR: 1.52
• 1% rule: 1.22%
• Cash to close: $133,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $475k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $475k).
• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($461k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $461k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#283 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F.
• Carpinteria Unified (suburban): math 27% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #255 of 517 in CA (top 49%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Canalino Elementary (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #779 of 1,571 statewide, top 52%, 498 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+15.2%/yr); 75 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 719 units permitted in Santa Barbara County in 2024 (217 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Santa Barbara County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $133k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 3.1% in Carpinteria — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $5,779/mo this rent would consume 63% of the median local household income ($110k/yr) (locally 718% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.