6180 Via Real #59 · Carpinteria, CA 93013

$475,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,510 sqft · Manufactured · 45 Days on market

Built 1973 $315/sqft · at area comps Est $488k · at est.

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.7/30.0
• DSCR +9.2/10.0
• ARV discount +8.7/15.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Enjoy beautiful mountain views from this stylish & lovingly maintained 2-bedroom, 2-bath home in Vista de Santa Barbara, Carpinteria's premiere park for age 55+ residents. The mountain-view living room is large enough to be currently used as both a gracious area for receiving guests and an office space. The adjacent dining area includes a lighted built-in display cabinet and plantation shutters, & leads to a well-designed chef's kitchen that features a large skylight over an 8-foot center island. The family room opens to a spacious sun room that also has mountain views. Outdoors are two garden areas, an intimate seating area, & the mountain-view front porch. The home is loca

Key facts

• Spacious sun room
• Large skylight
• Garden areas

Tags

• CHEF'S KITCHEN
• LARGE SKYLIGHT
• SPACIOUS SUN ROOM
• GARDEN AREAS
• INTIMATE SEATING AREA
• MOUNTAIN-VIEW FRONT PORCH

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Pets allowed (with limitations)
• HOA & community: Association/community amenities include pool, spa/hot tub, clubhouse, game room, RV/boat storage, greenbelt, and guest parking; Association fees cover property management and common area maintenance; Association present

Exterior

• Parking: 2 carport spaces
• Utilities: Carpinteria city water; Underground utilities
• Home design: Double wide manufactured home (Universal); Mobile dimensions approximately 24 ft wide by 64 ft long; Property reported in a multi-building park (102 buildings)
• Construction: Updated/remodeled condition
• Exterior features: Composition roof; Shed(s); Level lot; Near public transit; Mountain, panoramic and scenic setting views

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Built-in gas oven; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Ceiling fans (no central cooling)
• Interior features: Plantation shutters and blinds; Updated/remodeled condition; Family room; Sun room; Formal dining and dining area; Breakfast bar
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer; Laundry room with gas hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $475k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $475k).
• Recommended offer: $461k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 3.1% in Carpinteria — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#283 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F.
• Carpinteria Unified (suburban): math 27% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #255 of 517 in CA (top 49%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Canalino Elementary (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #779 of 1,571 statewide, top 52%, 498 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+15.2%/yr); 75 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 719 units permitted in Santa Barbara County in 2024 (217 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,779/mo this rent would consume 63% of the median local household income ($110k/yr) (locally 718% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Santa Barbara County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $133k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($461k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $460,750 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.58%
• DSCR: 1.52
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $487,500
• List price: $475,000
• Delta: -2.56%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6180 Via Real #56	0.03mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-5%)	8mo	$415,000	$288	84
6180 Via Real #65	0.03mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,560 (+3%)	11mo	$629,000	$403	79
6180 Via Real #120	0.17mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,660 (+10%)	15mo	$680,000	$410	58
5750 Via Real #244	0.75mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-11%)	9mo	$355,000	$264	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.27×
• Total profit: $35,381
• Equity at exit: $70,824

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.07×
• Total profit: $275,405
• Equity at exit: $41,069

Cash invested: $133,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93013

• Rents YoY: 15.2%
• Active inventory: 75
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,779 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,491
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$594 /mo · $7,125/yr
• Insurance: −$198
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,214
• Net cashflow: $1,283

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,155

Max offer price $475,000

Occupancy floor 73%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $118,750
• Closing costs: $14,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5573 Calle Arena Carpinteria, CA	3.0	2.0	1860	$7,500	$4.03	23d	1	1.22mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $475,000 Active 45 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $475,000 Active 44 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $475,000 Active 43 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $475,000 Active 42 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $475,000 Active 40 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $475,000 Active 39 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $475,000 Active 37 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $475,000 Active 36 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $475,000 Active 35 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $475,000 Active 34 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $475,000 Active 31 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $475,000 Active 30 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $475,000 Active 29 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $475,000 Active 28 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $475,000 Active 27 DOM
16. 2026-05-04
    listed $475,000 Active 922-char remark
17. 2000-05-30
    historical
18. 2000-05-01
    listed $132,800

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥84°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 12 unhealthy d/yr today · 12 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $69,353
• − Mortgage interest: −$26,607
• − Property taxes: −$7,125
• − Insurance: −$2,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,548
• − Management: −$5,548
• − Depreciation: −$13,818
• Taxable income: $8,331
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,999
• After-tax cash flow: $13,398/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carpinteria Unified
• NCES district ID: 0607560
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,780
• Composite: 32.27/100
• National rank: #5758
• State rank: #255 of 517 in CA

Livability — Carpinteria

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #283
• US rank: #9548

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carpinteria, CA
• County: Santa Barbara County · 410,380 people
• City population: 16,317
• Metro: Santa Maria-Santa Barbara, CA
• Population (ZIP): 16,317
• Household income: $110,359
• Rent vs Own: 39.0% rent · 61.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 718.0

Population outlook (Santa Barbara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 484,679 people
• By 2030: 505,323 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 545,783 · +12.6%
• By 2050: 584,263 · +20.5%
• By 2075: 682,586 · +40.8%
• By 2100: 723,188 · +49.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 17% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 29% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Barbara

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+26.7) · D 61.8% · R 35.1% · Other 3.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.8pp toward D · 2008: 22.9pp · 2024: 26.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+26.7 2020: D+32.1 2016: D+28.2 2012: D+17.1 2008: D+22.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1390.66%
• Current HPI: 345.0001
• Rent YoY: ▲ 15.23%
• Metro: Santa Maria-Santa Barbara, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+257.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Listed $475,000 SBMLS
• 2000-05-30 Listing Removed — SBMLS
• 2000-05-01 Listed $132,800 SBMLS