589 Landing Ave

Smithtown, NY 11787

$1,686,000B

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 3,076 sqft · Built 1994 · SingleFamily · Active · 15 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $31,548/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$8,842
• Tax + insurance: −$2,662
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$6,625
• Net cashflow: $13,419/mo
• Annual: $161,030/yr
• Cap rate: 15.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.11%
• DSCR: 2.52
• 1% rule: 1.87%
• Cash to close: $472,080

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $1.69M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $13k ($161k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($32k rent vs $1.69M).
• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($1.66M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.66M (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $12k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $51k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#550 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Smithtown Central School District (suburban): math 71% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #86 of 590 in NY (top 15%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 5% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Smithtown Elementary School (math 72% / reading 72%, grade A-, #378 of 2,108 statewide, top 20%, 514 students, 14% FRL); Nesaquake Middle School (math 44% / reading 67%, grade B-, #211 of 729 statewide, top 29%, 473 students, 10% FRL); Smithtown High School-West (math 97% / reading 87%, grade A+, #171 of 1,100 statewide, top 18%, 1,270 students, 13% FRL).
• Market conditions: 172 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Current owner paid $880k; list at $1.69M implies a 92% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $472k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 15.8% vs local median 1.9% in Smithtown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.