589 Landing Ave · Smithtown, NY 11787

$1,686,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 3,076 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1994 1.20 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this magnificent custom brick home offering luxurious living space on a private 1.2-acre setting. Features include a dramatic two-story grand entry foyer with two staircases, soaring vaulted ceilings, gourmet chef's kitchen with cherry cabinetry, granite countertops and Viking appliances, especially including Subzero refrigerator, hardwood floor through out entire house. Master suite with radiant heated floors, spa-inspired primary suite, and beautiful views of preserved land. Designed for elegant entertaining and comfortable living with surround sound system. Addition bonus room with vaulted celling and extra large window, Three high celling attached car garage can be built dou

Key facts

• 1.2 acre lot
• 3 garage spots
• Built 1994

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Tax year and amounts excluded per instructions
• Financial info: Financial details not provided
• HOA & community: No HOA information provided

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener; Three garage spaces; No carport
• Security: No specific security features provided
• Utilities: Cesspool sewer; Other utilities — see remarks
• Home design: Single-family residence; Living area reported as 3,851
• Construction: Brick exterior; Full attic
• Exterior features: Brick construction; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Oven; Refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances
• Bedrooms: Bedrooms information not provided
• Flooring: Hardwood floors
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Oil heating; Central air conditioning; One fireplace
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Bay windows; Full basement; Nine total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $1.69M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $13k ($161k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($32k rent vs $1.69M).
• Recommended offer: $1.66M (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.8% vs local median 1.9% in Smithtown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#550 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Smithtown Central School District (suburban): math 71% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #86 of 590 in NY (top 15%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 5% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Smithtown Elementary School (math 72% / reading 72%, grade A-, #378 of 2,108 statewide, top 20%, 514 students, 14% FRL); Nesaquake Middle School (math 44% / reading 67%, grade B-, #211 of 729 statewide, top 29%, 473 students, 10% FRL); Smithtown High School-West (math 97% / reading 87%, grade A+, #171 of 1,100 statewide, top 18%, 1,270 students, 13% FRL).
• Market conditions: 172 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $12k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $51k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $472k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($1.66M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $880k; list at $1.69M implies a 92% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,660,710 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.87% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.11%
• DSCR: 2.52
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $1,005,852
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21 Franciscan Ln	0.18mi	4/2.5	3,129 (+2%)	13mo	$1,271,000	$406	78
9 Franciscan Ln	0.23mi	4/2.5	2,983 (-3%)	12mo	$1,050,000	$352	75
92 Hawthorne Rd	0.55mi	4/2.5	2,951 (-4%)	1mo	$860,000	$291	66
14 Franciscan Ln	0.16mi	4/2.5	2,742 (-11%)	12mo	$1,250,000	$456	64
25 Franciscan Ln	0.21mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,893 (-6%)	12mo	$1,265,000	$437	64
115 Cypress Dr	0.57mi	4/3.0	2,900 (-6%)	2mo	$880,000	$303	60
Lot 19 St Nicholas Ave	0.43mi	5/3.0 (+1)	3,100 (+1%)	15mo	$899,900	$290	59
60 Oak St	0.35mi	4/2.5	2,660 (-14%)	5mo	$869,000	$327	57
21 Forest Rd	0.70mi	5/3.0 (+1)	3,376 (+10%)	3mo	$859,000	$254	42
467 Landing Ave	0.73mi	4/2.5	2,745 (-11%)	11mo	$800,000	$291	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.23×
• Total profit: $581,855
• Equity at exit: $251,388

10-year hold

• IRR: 36.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.41×
• Total profit: $1,608,764
• Equity at exit: $145,774

Cash invested: $472,080 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11787

• Active inventory: 172
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $31,548 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$8,842
• Tax from tax record: −$1,960 /mo · $23,516/yr
• Insurance: −$702
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$6,625
• Net cashflow: $13,419

Break-even live

Break-even rent $14,562

Max offer price $1,686,000

Occupancy floor 52%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $14,374	-5% $13,896	+0% $13,419	+5% $12,942	+10% $12,465
Rent	-10% $10,927	-5% $12,173	+0% $13,419	+5% $14,665	+10% $15,911
Rate	-1.0pp $14,268	-0.5pp $13,848	base $13,419	+0.5pp $12,982	+1.0pp $12,538

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $421,500
• Closing costs: $50,580
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
451 River Rd Saint James, NY	5.0	3.0	3000	$5,800	$1.93	44d	1	0.93mi
15 Pheasant Run Saint James, NY	5.0	5.5	3058	$60,000	$19.62	25d	1	1.04mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-21
   pricedays on market $1,686,000 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,688,000 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on market $1,688,000 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,750,000 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,750,000 Active 9 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $1,750,000 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,788,000 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,788,000 Active 3 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,788,000 Active 2 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    remarks 699-char remark
11. 2026-06-07
    listed $1,788,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $23,516 · $1,960/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $26,005 · $2,167/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,489/yr (+$207/mo · 10.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $378,576
• − Mortgage interest: −$94,442
• − Property taxes: −$23,516
• − Insurance: −$8,430
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$30,286
• − Management: −$30,286
• − Depreciation: −$49,047
• Taxable income: $142,568
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$34,216
• After-tax cash flow: $126,814/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Smithtown Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3627060
• Math proficiency: 71% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $110,009
• Composite: 65.53/100
• National rank: #473
• State rank: #86 of 590 in NY

Livability — Smithtown

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #550
• US rank: #9881

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Smithtown, NY
• City population: 34,656
• Population (ZIP): 34,656

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -670.62%
• Current HPI: 301.0617
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+103.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-07 Listed $1,788,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-06-07 Coming Soon $1,788,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-10-08 Sold (Public Records) $880,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $23,516 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.