139 Danford Dr

Elkton, MD 21921

$194,000C

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,330 sqft · Built 1986 · Townhouse · Active · 61 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,120/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,017
• Tax + insurance: −$234
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$445
• Net cashflow: $424/mo
• Annual: $5,083/yr
• Cap rate: 8.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.36%
• DSCR: 1.42
• 1% rule: 1.09%
• Cash to close: $54,320

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $194k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $424 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $194k).
• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $182k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#261 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: schools F, crime F, commute F.
• Cecil County Public Schools (rural): math 15% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #15 of 24 in MD (top 62%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 207 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 563 units permitted in Cecil County in 2024 (330 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 5 sale attempts since 28y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $88k; list at $194k implies a 119% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 4.1% in Elkton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.