2965 Johnstonville Rd #44 Rd

Susanville, CA 96130

$72,000B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,236 sqft · Built 1994 · Manufactured · Active · 203 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,362/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$378
• Tax + insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$286
• Net cashflow: $655/mo
• Annual: $7,857/yr
• Cap rate: 17.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 38.97%
• DSCR: 2.73
• 1% rule: 1.89%
• Cash to close: $20,160

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $72k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $655 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $72k).
• It's been on market 203 days — a 12% lower offer ($63k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $63k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $498 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#421 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, commute A-, health & safety A-; Watch: crime F, amenities F.
• Susanville Elementary (town): math 27% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #350 of 517 in CA (top 68%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Mckinley Elementary (413 students, 63% FRL); Diamond View Middle (math 24% / reading 34%, grade F, #224 of 498 statewide, top 46%, 303 students, 65% FRL); Lassen High (math 12% / reading 47%, grade F, #750 of 1,170 statewide, top 66%, 820 students, 33% FRL).
• Market conditions: 238 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6 units permitted in Lassen County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lassen County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $72k implies a 80% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 17.2% vs local median 3.9% in Susanville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 203 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.