2965 Johnstonville Rd #44 Rd · Susanville, CA 96130

$72,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,236 sqft · Manufactured public records · 203 Days on market

Built 1994

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Affordable with 3 beds and 2 baths! Split floor plan open dining living area. Easy living in Hidden Acres Mobile Home Park. You have easy walking to Stores, the park offers water included in the rent space. Which is $700 a month. And Yes you need to get an application for the park at the office. On site Manager Randy 530-816-2629. This doublewide has some fencing for say a small dog. and there is a shed out back. It's a corner space with parking in front and on the side. Home could possibly be financed, check with your Lender or First Pacific at 530-223-6297 they offer mobile home loan packages.

Key facts

• Split floor plan
• Vinyl siding
• Double-pane windows

Tags

• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• OPEN LIVING AND DINING AREA
• VINYL SIDING
• DOUBLE-PANE WINDOWS
• NEW HUD-APPROVED ROOF
• CORNER SPACE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; Zoned MHP
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas range
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Interior features: Vaulted ceilings; Insulated windows
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $72k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $655 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $72k).
• Recommended offer: $63k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.2% vs local median 3.9% in Susanville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#421 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, commute A-, health & safety A-; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Susanville Elementary (town): math 27% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #350 of 517 in CA (top 68%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 238 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6 units permitted in Lassen County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $498 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lassen County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 203 days — a 12% lower offer ($63k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $72k implies a 80% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $63,360 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 203 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.89% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 38.97%
• DSCR: 2.73
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $165,624
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
137 Mountainview Pkwy	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,150 (-7%)	10mo	$195,000	$170	74
2965 Johnstonville Rd	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,400 (+13%)	9mo	$60,000	$43	68
190 Diamond Mountain Way	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,378 (+12%)	10mo	$185,000	$134	68

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 35.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.49×
• Total profit: $30,008
• Equity at exit: $10,735

10-year hold

• IRR: 41.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.95×
• Total profit: $79,720
• Equity at exit: $6,225

Cash invested: $20,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96130

• Active inventory: 238
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,362 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$378
• Tax from tax record: −$14 /mo · $169/yr
• Insurance: −$30
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$286
• Net cashflow: $655

Break-even live

Break-even rent $534

Max offer price $72,000

Occupancy floor 47%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $695	-5% $675	+0% $655	+5% $634	+10% $614
Rent	-10% $547	-5% $601	+0% $655	+5% $709	+10% $762
Rate	-1.0pp $691	-0.5pp $673	base $655	+0.5pp $636	+1.0pp $617

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,000
• Closing costs: $2,160
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
55 S Sacramento St Susanville, CA	2.0	2.0	1500	$1,500	$1.00	22d	1	0.64mi
525 Hall St Susanville, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,100	$1.22	22d	1	0.95mi
413 Pardee Ave Susanville, CA	2.0	1.0	924	$1,400	$1.52	22d	1	1.18mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $72,000 Active 203 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $72,000 Active 201 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $72,000 Active 200 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $72,000 Active 199 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $72,000 Active 198 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $72,000 Active 197 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $72,000 Active 195 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $72,000 Active 194 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $72,000 Active 191 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $72,000 Active 190 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $72,000 Active 189 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $72,000 Active 188 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $72,000 Active 185 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $72,000 Active 184 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $72,000 Active 183 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $72,000 Active 182 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $72,000 Active 181 DOM
18. 2026-04-03
    price $72,000
19. 2025-11-30
    listed $82,000 Active
20. 2024-10-21
    soldstatus $40,000 Closed 603-char remark

    Show marketing remark (603 chars)

    Affordable with 3 beds and 2 baths! Split floor plan open dining living area. Easy living in Hidden Acres Mobile Home Park. You have easy walking to Stores, the park offers water included in the rent space. Which is $700 a month. And Yes you need to get an application for the park at the office. On site Manager Randy 530-816-2629. This doublewide has some fencing for say a small dog. and there is a shed out back. It's a corner space with parking in front and on the side. Home could possibly be financed, check with your Lender or First Pacific at 530-223-6297 they offer mobile home loan packages.

21. 2024-09-24
    status Pending 603-char remark

    Show marketing remark (603 chars)

    Affordable with 3 beds and 2 baths! Split floor plan open dining living area. Easy living in Hidden Acres Mobile Home Park. You have easy walking to Stores, the park offers water included in the rent space. Which is $700 a month. And Yes you need to get an application for the park at the office. On site Manager Randy 530-816-2629. This doublewide has some fencing for say a small dog. and there is a shed out back. It's a corner space with parking in front and on the side. Home could possibly be financed, check with your Lender or First Pacific at 530-223-6297 they offer mobile home loan packages.

22. 2024-08-31
    listed $44,000 Active 603-char remark

    Show marketing remark (603 chars)

    Affordable with 3 beds and 2 baths! Split floor plan open dining living area. Easy living in Hidden Acres Mobile Home Park. You have easy walking to Stores, the park offers water included in the rent space. Which is $700 a month. And Yes you need to get an application for the park at the office. On site Manager Randy 530-816-2629. This doublewide has some fencing for say a small dog. and there is a shed out back. It's a corner space with parking in front and on the side. Home could possibly be financed, check with your Lender or First Pacific at 530-223-6297 they offer mobile home loan packages.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $169 · $14/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $547 · $46/mo
• Expected delta: +$379/yr (+$32/mo · 224.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥93°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 26 unhealthy d/yr today · 27 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,350
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,033
• − Property taxes: −$169
• − Insurance: −$360
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,308
• − Management: −$1,308
• − Depreciation: −$2,095
• Taxable income: $7,078
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,699
• After-tax cash flow: $6,158/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Susanville Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0638550
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $49,068
• Composite: 25.69/100
• National rank: #7387
• State rank: #350 of 517 in CA

Livability — Susanville

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #421
• US rank: #14210

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A- Cost of living B+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Susanville, CA
• Population (ZIP): 20,892

Population outlook (Lassen County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 27,112 people
• By 2030: 26,732 · -1.4%
• By 2040: 25,536 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 23,262 · -14.2%
• By 2075: 18,620 · -31.3%
• By 2100: 14,679 · -45.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 17% Black 9% Native American 2% Pacific Islander 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lassen

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+54.0) · D 21.8% · R 75.8% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -34.2pp · 2024: -54.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+54.0 2020: R+51.5 2016: R+51.3 2012: R+39.8 2008: R+34.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -126.12%
• Current HPI: 136.1585
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+63.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $72,000 LAORMLS
• 2025-11-30 Listed $82,000 LAORMLS
• 2024-10-21 Sold (MLS) $40,000 LAORMLS
• 2024-09-24 Pending — LAORMLS
• 2024-08-31 Listed $44,000 LAORMLS

Property tax history

-11.0%/yr

Latest (2020): $169 · -6.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.