315 Circle Dr

Maynardville, TN 37807

$229,599C

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,128 sqft · Built 2000 · Other · Active · 40 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,550/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,204
• Tax + insurance: −$383
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$536
• Net cashflow: $428/mo
• Annual: $5,134/yr
• Cap rate: 8.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.99%
• DSCR: 1.36
• 1% rule: 1.11%
• Cash to close: $64,288

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $230k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $428 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $230k).
• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($223k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $223k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-2.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#331 in TN) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Union County (rural): math 14% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #127 of 139 in TN (top 91%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Maynardville Elementary (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #753 of 952 statewide, top 81%, 363 students, 0% FRL); H Maynard Middle School (math 14% / reading 18%, grade F, #223 of 333 statewide, top 68%, 656 students, 0% FRL); Union County High School (math 12% / reading 27%, grade F, #197 of 332 statewide, top 60%, 819 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 54% district-wide (54 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 80 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 134 units permitted in Union County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Union County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 1.7% in Maynardville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.