96 Cedar Dr W

Plainview, NY 11803

$809,000D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,810 sqft · Built 1964 · SingleFamily · Pending · 15 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,564/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,242
• Tax + insurance: −$1,666
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,168
• Net cashflow: $-1,513/mo
• Annual: $-18,160/yr
• Cap rate: 4.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.02%
• DSCR: 0.64
• 1% rule: 0.69%
• Cash to close: $226,520

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $809k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-18k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $542k (33.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $556k (31.2% below list).
• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($797k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $542k (33.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $24k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#36 in NY, #554 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Plainview-Old Bethpage Central School District (suburban): math 88% / reading 86% proficiency, ranked #20 of 590 in NY (top 3%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 4% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 158 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 824 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (153 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Nassau County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Current owner paid $55k; list at $809k implies a 1371% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 69% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.0% vs local median 2.7% in Plainview — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($188k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.