418 Rann Ct

Fredericksburg, VA 22401

$248,888D

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,141 sqft · Built 1977 · Condo · Active · 49 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,096/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,305
• Tax + insurance: −$237
• HOA: −$84
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$440
• Net cashflow: $30/mo
• Annual: $354/yr
• Cap rate: 6.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.51%
• DSCR: 1.02
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $69,689

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $249k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $30 ($354/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $210k (15.8% below list).
• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($241k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $210k (15.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#299 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, employment A-, housing B+; Watch: crime F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Fredericksburg City Public School District (suburban): math 27% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #119 of 131 in VA (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hugh Mercer Elementary (959 students, 84% FRL); Walker-Grant Middle (math 20% / reading 46%, grade F, #332 of 342 statewide, top 97%, 750 students, 83% FRL); James Monroe High (math 25% / reading 70%, grade D, #304 of 319 statewide, top 95%, 1,002 students, 85% FRL) — zoned schools average 84% FRL vs 54% district-wide (30 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 121 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 37 units permitted in Fredericksburg city in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Fredericksburg County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $70k; list at $249k implies a 254% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 21% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.7% in Fredericksburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?